Predicting every remaining Champions League league phase game: Bayern Munich beat Arsenal to top spot

Is something traditional if you’ve only done it for the last two years? If it isn’t already, rest assured that predicting every game of the Champions League league phase and then re-predicting it at the halfway mark is about to become as much a staple of the CBS Sports content game as turkey is on your Thanksgiving table. I’m all in on this. There are simply too many opportunities to make myself look a fool.

For instance, you may recall this column’s belief that the league phase was going to begin in quite disastrous fashion for Atletico Madrid, who had the look of yesterday’s team going into this competition. Instead they’re pottering in perfectly adequate fashion, six points from a tricky start to the competition. And what of the ignominious take that actually Pafos were going to do six time European champions Bayern Munich? That one aged like milk in a summer greenhouse.

So consider this a mulligan, a desperate attempt to brush off some ignominy and get back on track in the prediction game. I dunno though. I still think this could look pretty embarrassing come January.

Matchweek 5

• Ajax 1, Benfica 1
• Galatasaray 2, Union S-G 0
• Bodo/Glimt 1, Juventus 0
• Napoli 2, Qarabag 0
• Marseille 2, Newcastle 2
• Borussia Dortmund 2, Villarreal 0
• Chelsea 2, Barcelona 4
• Manchester City 3, Bayer Leverkusen 0
• Slavia Prague 0, Athletic Club 1
• Pafos 0, Monaco 3
• Copenhagen 2, Kairat 0
• Olympiacos 0, Real Madrid 1
• Sporting 2, Club Brugge 1
• Eintracht Frankfurt 3, Atalanta 3
• Liverpool 2, PSV 0
• Atletico Madrid 1, Inter 1
• Arsenal 1, Bayern Munich 1
• Paris Saint-Germain 2, Tottenham 0

A week of properly big Champions League games begins in thrilling fashion, Lamine Yamal and a returning Raphinha starring in an authoritative win for Barcelona, the sort that reaffirms their status as a serious contender. Two teams who don’t need to do that seem happy to declare at 1-1 at the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal rotating their squad with an eye on the Premier League and Bayern perfectly happy to keep hold of top spot. Inter could have snatched it off them but their draw at Atletico Madrid means there are no 100% records left in the competition.

There are no more zero pointers either but the 1-1 draw between Ajax and Benfica that kicks off this week means those two are up the creek with only one draw to their name. Only a miraculous run of wins in their final three games will give them even half a chance of a top 24 berth. In reality they, Villarreal and Kairat look done for with one point to show from five games. 

Matchday 6

• Kairat 0, Olympiacos 1
• Bayern Munich 3, Sporting 0
• Atalanta 1, Chelsea 2
• Inter 2, Liverpool 1
• Barcelona 5, Eintracht Frankfurt 2
• PSV 1, Atletico Madrid 1
• Union S-G 2, Marseille 1
• Tottenham 1, Slavia Prague 0
• Monaco 3, Galatasaray 1
• Villarreal 1, Copenhagen 0
• Qarabag 0, Ajax 0
• Real Madrid 2, Manchester City 2
• Borussia Dortmund 3, Bodo/Glimt 1
• Athletic 1, Paris Saint-Germain 3
• Bayer Leverkusen 1, Newcastle United 1
• Club Brugge 0, Arsenal 2
• Benfica 1, Napoli 0
• Juventus 2, Pafos 0

Juventus might rally against Pafos but this is already shaping up to be a curiously underwhelming campaign for Serie A. The Bianconeri clamber into the top 24 but you could throw a blanket between 18th and 21st and get three-quarters of Italy’s representatives. Napoli and Atalanta’s faltering is perhaps to be expected given the crucial departures that afflicted these two teams in 2025 — most notably Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Gian Piero Gasperini — but even if Juventus were to beat both Bodo/Glimt and Pafos, they’re hardly performing up to their talent level.

More impressive is Inter, who make hay of the fact that Liverpool are still working their way towards an approximation of their best selves. They, Arsenal and Bayern Munich find themselves four points clear of ninth spot, certainly not having wrapped up their spot in the last 16 but probably able to rotate through January to ease the minutes load on their stars. 

That trio and a few teams at the bottom are probably the only ones who can end 2025 thinking in those terms. From Napoli in 19th to 33rd placed Copenhagen you have a group of teams between seven points and four. This isn’t shaping up to be 2024-25 where two legitimate big beasts — Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City — were teetering on the brink. This time the top 14 looks like the Deloitte Money League (plus Galatasaray). That is what the league phase will normally be like. If you’re invested in Bayer Leverkusen, Olympiacos and Serie A sides, you’ll probably be absorbed in the drama. The big teams, though, might already have the job done.

Matchday 7

• Kairat 1, Club Brugge 3
• Bodo/Glimt 0, Manchester City 4
• Real Madrid 2, Monaco 0
• Inter 0, Arsenal 1
• Tottenham 1, Borussia Dortmund 1
• Sporting 1, Paris Saint-Germain 3
• Olympiacos 0, Bayer Leverkusen 1
• Villarreal 2, Ajax 0
• Copenhagen 1, Napoli 1
• Qarabag 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 2
• Galatasaray 2, Atletico Madrid 2
• Bayern Munich 3, Union S-G 0
• Chelsea 4, Pafos 0
• Marseille 1, Liverpool 3
• Slavia Prague 0, Barcelona 2
• Atalanta 2, Athletic Club 1
• Juventus 1, Benfica 0
• Newcastle 2, PSV 0

One round left to go after these games and a few things are locked in. Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain all assure themselves of top eight finishes and only goal difference separates the first two at the top of the table. Manchester City are three points clear of Newcastle in ninth and round things off at home to a Galatasaray side who are certain of top 24 but unlikely to get to eighth, you’d think they’ll be fine too. That means Barcelona, Inter, Real Madrid, Liverpool, Newcastle, Borussia Dortmund and Chelsea will be hunting for the bye to the round of 16 on the final week.

Further down the table, Villarreal and Eintracht Frankfurt get extremely important wins that mean PSV, Athletic Club and Union Saint-Gilloise lead the teams on the outside looking in. In theory every team down to 33rd place Benfica has a chance and everyone up to Qarabag in 20th is at real risk. It looks like the biggest drama of the final round might come in Brugges, where Marseille will need to win to turn their four points into seven and have a shot, and Paphos. Win at home to eliminated Slavia Prague and the Cypriot champions have a very real chance of a knockout berth.

Matchday 8

• PSV 1, Bayern Munich 3
• Napoli 1, Chelsea 1
• Benfica 0, Real Madrid 2
• Borussia Dortmund 1, Inter 2
• Liverpool 4, Qarabag 1
• Barcelona 3, Copenhagen 0
• Manchester City 2, Galatasaray 1
• Bayer Leverkusen 1, Villarreal 1
• Arsenal 4, Kairat 0
• Union S-G 2, Atalanta 1
• Club Brugge 0, Marseille 2
• Eintracht Frankfurt 1, Tottenham 1
• Monaco 0, Juventus 0
• Atletico Madrid 3, Bodo/Glimt 0
• Athletic Club 2, Sporting 1
• Ajax 1, Olympiacos 0
• Paris Saint-Germain 3, Newcastle 1
• Pafos 1, Slavia Prague 0

Shall we just get straight into the table? Perhaps if you’re at all Pafos minded, you might want to look away. Oh and I hate to break it to our Azeri audience but you might just need to avoid a humbling at Anfield.

Cross-referencing this with my initial predictions from September and, well, it’s a yikes for Juventus. The early games of their Serie A season were writing some pretty interesting checks and the talent is there, but at the moment they feel like a club that can’t get out of their own way. In my assessment of Serie A as a whole I see a little too much optimism having had Napoli in ninth. The early weeks in Italy would seem to suggest that only one elite Italian club is in the Champions League and Inter probably belong in the circle marked contenders.

Doing these predictions, it is intriguing that this time that group have all landed in the top eight, who have a four point cushion from the rest. That feels at least partly representative of where the European game is this season. You can’t sense a PSG bubbling away under the surface. Perhaps something remarkable could happen at Atletico Madrid and maybe Chelsea merit a place in the conversation — Tuesday’s game against Barcelona might give us an idea — but this feels more like a year for the best to pull away from the rest.

One other factor that’s starting to shine through in the league phase. It really is all about the fixture list. Last year PSG found themselves on the brink because they drew two of the best teams out of Pots One and Two — Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Arsenal. This time you’d probably argue Atleti found themselves in the same position. 

The inverse is equally true. No matter how you sketch things out from here, Pafos figure to be there or thereabouts on the final day of the league phase because they get to play the worst team in Pot Four, Kairat, and Slavia Prague. In average coefficient terms, Atalanta had the easiest draw of the lot. That’d be why a middle table Serie A club that has already sacked their manager should pretty comfortably progress to the playoffs. It’s a foolish errand to try to construct fairness into any format in a competition like the Champions League, but one thing looks clear every time we predict this league phase. The defining moment of the campaign might not be the result you get on night one or the performance you deliver on night eight. It might be which balls come out of which pots at the end of August.