Pete Prisco’s Week 5 NFL picks: Jags upset Chiefs, Texans knock off banged-up Ravens, Saints get first win

The weather is turning cooler, but I am not.

Thankfully.

After a bad Week 2, it’s been two really good weeks for me picking games, both against the spread and straight up.

I went 10-6 ATS last week to up my season record to 36-28, while going 12-3-1 straight up to bring that record to 49-14-1. The card is smaller with four byes this week, but that’s fine. I feel good about the 14 games we do have.

Let’s keep the hot streak going. 

Bet NFL Week 5 games and NFL odds at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager. Click here to get started:

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns (+3.5) (from London)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. on NFL Network (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

There is talk this will be Dillon Gabriel at quarterback for the Browns, which means the rookie’s first NFL start comes overseas against the complicated Brian Flores defense. That will be a challenge. But the Vikings have issues of their own on offense, with injuries to the offensive line. That’s not a good thing against that Browns defense. I think Gabriel will play well enough and the defense will keep the Browns in it. 

Pick: Vikings 20, Browns 17 | Odds via BetMGM

Bonus: NFL betting expert R.J. White is on an incredible 37-13 run on picks in Vikings games and he’s already locked one in for this game at SportsLine.  

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New York Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Cowboys are coming off a home tie with the Packers, a game in which they played well on offense. In fact, Dak Prescott has been playing well all season. The Jets defense has not. That’s an edge for Dallas. The Jets are 0-4, sloppy and haven’t taken the ball away yet. The Cowboys and Prescott will take this one. 

Pick: Cowboys 30, Jets 20 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Denver Broncos (+3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This is a long trip on a short week for the Broncos, which is never a good combination. But they are coming off a victory Monday night that saw Bo Nix play better. That is important after his slow start. The Eagles are 4-0, but the numbers don’t show a dominant team. Philadelphia will find a way to win this one, but it will be close thanks to the Denver defense.

Pick: Eagles 24, Broncos 23 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet:

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (+2.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Ravens are reeling, especially on defense, and now they might be without Lamar Jackson because of a hamstring injury. That’s a big problem. The Texans won for the first time last week against the Titans and showed some life on offense. The defense is special. I think that will keep them in it and they win it late without Jackson on the field. 

Pick: Texans 21, Ravens 20 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Colts are coming off their first loss against the Rams, but they played well in that game. The Raiders lost to the Bears when they had a field goal blocked as the gun sounded, but Geno Smith threw three picks in that game to limit them. I think he will play better here, especially with Ashton Jeanty getting it going in the backfield. They hang around, but the Colts win it.

Pick: Colts 30, Raiders 27 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Miami Dolphins (-1-5) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Dolphins head to Carolina off their first victory, but they will do so without Tyreek Hill, who is lost for the season. That’s a big hit to the offense. But the Panthers are struggling on offense and they were blown out last week at New England. This is a chance for the Dolphins to get their second victory — and I think they will. 

Pick: Dolphins 24, Panthers 19 | Odds via BetMGM

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This will be Jaxson Dart‘s first road start after winning at home last week. He did some good things, but without Malik Nabers the challenge will be a lot greater. The Saints hung around on the road against the Bills last week and I think they will hang around and win this one. The road is too much for Dart. 

Pick: Saints 23, Giants 17 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This is a long trip for a Tampa Bay team coming off its first loss. Seattle has won three straight behind a stingy defense and Sam Darnold hitting big plays down the field. But the Seahawks haven’t played as well at home under coach Mike Macdonald. Look for Baker Mayfield to pull this one out late.

Pick: Buccaneers 26, Seahawks 23 | Odds via BetMGM

Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

The Titans are playing consecutive road games after getting shut out at Houston by the Texans last week. Arizona lost to the Seahawks and they also have struggled on offense. But this Titans team might be the perfect tonic. Kyler Murray will play well as the misery continues for the Titans. 

Pick: Cardinals 27, Titans 13 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Detroit Lions (-10.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Bengals are playing on a short week after getting blown out by Denver on Monday night. Jake Browning is struggling behind a bad offensive line. The Lions didn’t play as well on offense against the Browns last week as they had been playing, but this will change that. Jared Goff will get back on track. Lions big. 

Pick: Lions 33, Bengals 20 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Commanders should have Jayden Daniels back in this one after he missed the past two weeks. The Chargers are coming off their first loss to the Giants last week. They have injury issues up front on the offensive line, but I think Justin Herbert will still be able to light up this Commanders defense. The Chargers get back on track.

Pick: Chargers 34, Commanders 24 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Patriots impressed in blowing out Carolina last week, but this is a big step up in class. Facing the Bills at their place on a Sunday night is tough sledding. The Bills have been outstanding on offense and that will continue in this one. Look for Josh Allen to play big as the Bills win it.

Pick: Bills 31, Patriots 20 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC, ESPN (Stream: Fubo — try for free)

The Chiefs impressed in beating the Ravens last week, but now must play a surprise Jacksonville team on the road on a Monday night. That won’t be easy. The Jaguars defense has taken the ball away 13 times. I think they get two here, but I also think their offense will do enough. Upset special. 

Pick: Jaguars 23, Chiefs 21 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook