Patriots’ upset win over Bills is just the start; why New England could catapult after Week 5 victory

Don’t look now, but the New England Patriots are on the rise. Drake Maye and Co. put the nation on notice as they went into Highmark Stadium under the “Sunday Night Football” lights and pulled off an upset win over the Buffalo Bills. This wasn’t your run-of-the-mill one-off upset, either. This was the biggest victory of the post-Tom Brady era for the Patriots, and validation that this new regime, led by Maye and first-year head coach Mike Vrabel, has the arrow pointing up. And Sunday’s statement win could prove to be the tip of the iceberg. 

New England exits Week 5 at 3-2 on the season, and the road ahead sets the franchise up to go on a significant run. The Patriots possess the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, with their opponents possessing a combined win percentage of .305. The next easiest schedule (belonging to the Denver Broncos) has an opponents combined win percentage of .411. 

Specifically, the next month is a window where the winning should continue, starting in Week 6, where they travel to New Orleans to face the Saints as a 3.5-point favorite. After that, they face the Tennessee Titans on the road before back-to-back home games against the Cleveland Browns and Atlanta Falcons. Those opponents currently have a combined record of 5-14 through Week 5. 

Patriots remaining 2025 schedule

New England will likely be favored in every game over the next month, meaning it could be looking at a 7-2 record entering Week 10. That’s a remarkable development considering that it would nearly double the Patriots’ win total from each of the previous two seasons (New England went 4-13 in both 2023 and 2024). And that’s not accounting for matchups later in the season against more sub-.500 teams, including two against the currently winless New York Jets. 

At FanDuel Sportsbook, New England is -150 to record 10 or more wins and -210 to reach the playoffs, so the odds are telling us that this trajectory is expected to slow down. Meanwhile, if the Patriots meet those expectations, Mike Vrabel’s current odds of +1000 to win Coach of the Year have tremendous value. Already, this hype train has steamed out of the station thanks to this high-profile win over Buffalo, but the schedule is set up in such a way that the Patriots could be the hottest team in the NFL by Halloween.