NFL Super Wild Card Weekend best bets: Chiefs put Dolphins on ice, plus two outright underdog winners

To quote the legendary Jim Mora … PLAYOFFS! PLAYOFFS? It’s the postseason and it’s the most wonderful time of the NFL calendar. 

We’ve got insane happenings in the NFL coaching space, with Mike Vrabel, Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick all OUT with their respective organizations. But let’s not forget there’s actually FOOTBALL this weekend. We’re loaded to the gills with games all weekend long.

So let’s fire up best bets for the postseason. One for every game of Super Wild Card Weekend and one for every single game of the playoffs moving forward. To the best bets! 

Browns (-2.5) at Texans

• Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo) 

Now that I’ve formally apologized to Browns fans for picking them to go 7-10, I will be leaping firmly onto the January Joe Flacco bandwagon, unencumbered by any previous concerns with Cleveland’s chances of playing winning football. I’ve said it a ton already and I’ll say it again: what is meaningfully different about Flacco’s skill set now from when he made a Super Bowl run with the Ravens this time about 10 years ago? He wasn’t insanely mobile then and he’s got a similar group of skill-position guys, plus an elite defense backing him. This matchup will require him to attack vertically and win in the passing game, since the Texans profile as somewhat of a pass funnel and Cleveland might not be able to easily run on them. C.J. Stroud draws an impossible assignment in his first postseason start, going against maybe the best defense in football as a rookie QB in the playoffs. Home field is a help, but I’ll take the veteran with the better defense against the first-year QB and coach. 

Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Dolphins

• Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Peacock) 

The narrative surrounding this game might just lean into the weather! It’s supposed to be -2 degrees or so in Kansas City on Saturday — yes, -2 degrees — with a wind chill around -10 thanks to 10-15 mph winds. Stealing the narrative from Tyreek Hill here is pretty impressive — it’s Hill’s first game back at Arrowhead Stadium since the Chiefs traded him to Miami and it’s somehow not the top story. Kind of amazing! Assuming the temperature holds, this will be one of the four or five coldest games in NFL playoff history and the coldest home game in Chiefs history. And, frankly, it doesn’t bode well for the Dolphins. Miami is 0-10 in its last 10 games when the temperature is below 40 degrees, the longest current losing streak of any team in such games. If you take the five coldest games of Tua Tagovailoa’s career — all of which range between 30 degrees and 46 degrees — he is 0-5 in those games, with five touchdowns, seven interceptions and completes just over 56% of his passes. The Dolphins have also been terrible against good teams (1-5 vs. playoff teams) but so have the Chiefs (1-4, the one win against Miami!) so I don’t read too much into that.

Josh Allen anytime TD (-105)

• Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Awesome potential weather game on CBS (and streaming on Paramount+) set for Monday in Buffalo. It looked like we might get snow and wind and general insanity and we could see the total dip even more after opening from 43 and cratering down to 35.5. The over/under has stabilized some now, maybe thanks to the weather possibly improving. But we’re still looking at a ton of wind here, so with the Bills as a 10-point favorite, looking at Buffalo rushing props seems pretty prudent. Josh Allen doesn’t always activate his legs during the postseason (last year just 12 attempts for 46 yards in two games) but he’s definitely shown a willingness to use them when necessary. Buffalo loves running him near the goal line so let’s take his anytime touchdown price at -105. I think the Bills win big here, but the total is so low it’s impossible to back them as a best bet with a total this low and weather this volatile.

NOTE: The game was moved from Sunday to Monday due to weather.

Cowboys/Packers over 50.5

• Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

How delightfully square! Every playoff game is an island game but this is a Sunday special between two wildly popular “national” (read: bandwagon) NFL franchises. These are two very explosive offenses and defenses that can give up big plays. Mike McCarthy will probably call this “just another game” and he can justifiably point to the stakes here as greater than revenge — lots of people are suggesting he could be fired if he loses — but playing his old team definitely matters to him and I expect his play-calling to be loose and aggressive. McCarthy’s been great all season long with his playsheet, Dak Prescott emerged as a legit MVP candidate and CeeDee Lamb has a case to be the best wide receiver in football. Green Bay won’t get smoked here, though, and Jordan Love will have to toss the ball around plenty to keep up. Think we get a big game from Love and Aaron Jones; getting Christian Watson back would just be gravy. Points galore here.

Rams (+3.5) at Lions

• Sunday, 8 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)

I’ll be on the moneyline as well here, but in a best bets column with a 1:1 payout it would be idiotic not to take the points as well. The Lions are an awesome team and an awesome story and Jared Goff’s going to be playing with a massive chip on his shoulder. But Matthew Stafford smells some blood in the water here when it comes to the postseason — the Rams can legitimately make another Super Bowl run. Stafford is playing his first playoff game in Detroit despite spending 12 years with the Lions and I think he’ll show up completely locked in for this one. Kyren Wiliams, Puka Nakua and Cooper Kupp are all completely healthy and the Rams offensive line has been excellent for the second half of the season. The Lions won’t go quietly here by any stretch of the imagination and I think we get a bunch of points. Dan Campbell might go nuts on fourth down and if Detroit converts a ton of them it might tilt the entire game, especially since Sean McVay leans conservative on decision-making in these spots. But I trust Stafford and this Rams team to get it done on the road. 

Buccaneers (+3) vs. Eagles, Monday

• Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo)

The Buccaneers have been BAD on offense the last two weeks, managing to come in completely limp against the Saints in Week 17 before scoring a whopping nine points against the Panthers in a must-win spot. The spread moving toward the Eagles is equally concerning as many people have buried Philly in the second half as the Eagles completely cratered. Starting 10-1 and not hitting the over on an 11.5-game win total is something pretty magical. People are yelling about the possibility of Nick Sirianni getting FIRED if Philly loses this game, less than a year after appearing in the Super Bowl … and it doesn’t feel that insane. I’m taking the home team to win — and obviously cover — here, primarily because I don’t think the Eagles and new DC Matt Patricia magically fixed the defense over the last week. Tampa’s offense can maybe light switch things, especially if Dave Canales and Baker Mayfield focus on feeding Mike Evans deep down the field against this questionable secondary. Think this is lower scoring and a close game and the Bucs find a way to win.