KVSP NFL Power Rankings Week 2, best futures bets: Ravens or Bills to win Super Bowl, Packers win NFC
Written by Lucky Wilson | KJMM.COM on September 10, 2025
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Nothing happened in Week 1 to question our pre-season power rankings. The Bills and Ravens are the class of the AFC, this is the season the Chiefs’ dynasty falls, the Patriots ARE NOT a playoff threat, the Packers are the best team in the NFC North, the Saints may be more competitive than you think, and Bryce Young’s solid finish in ’24 was not going to translate to success this season.
Yeah, it’s too early to pat ourselves on the back, but we will anyway.
Our rankings are not based on what a team has accomplished. They are 100% based on how good we see them being going forward based on the % of simulations they win vs every other team on a Neutral field. But when you actually factor in wins and losses you can definitely find good betting values (see below) when lines are based on power ranking but not properly accounting for future strength of schedule
| PWR RANK | TEAM | NEUTRAL WIN% | PROJ WINS | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | SB |
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 71.6% | 11.3 | 60.7% | 89.2% | 15.0% |
| 2 | Baltimore Ravens | 71.2% | 11.3 | 65.8% | 91.1% | 14.8% |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills | 70.4% | 13.3 | 96.8% | 99.4% | 23.1% |
| 4 | Green Bay Packers | 70.2% | 11.8 | 69.1% | 93.9% | 16.1% |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | 66.4% | 9.3 | 10.9% | 52.5% | 3.8% |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 61.1% | 9.5 | 23.4% | 61.4% | 2.7% |
| 7 | Washington Commanders | 60.3% | 10.3 | 37.0% | 74.7% | 4.4% |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 59.0% | 10.8 | 90.2% | 92.4% | 5.0% |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 58.7% | 10.0 | 32.5% | 71.7% | 2.9% |
| 10 | Los Angeles Chargers | 56.7% | 9.9 | 37.8% | 71.8% | 2.4% |
| 11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 56.4% | 9.5 | 23.7% | 64.0% | 2.1% |
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings | 54.7% | 9.5 | 18.9% | 56.3% | 1.5% |
| 13 | San Francisco 49ers | 53.7% | 10.3 | 44.9% | 73.6% | 1.9% |
| 14 | Cincinnati Bengals | 52.8% | 8.4 | 10.3% | 37.3% | 0.9% |
| 15 | Los Angeles Rams | 51.3% | 9.4 | 30.6% | 55.7% | 0.9% |
| 16 | Seattle Seahawks | 50.7% | 7.9 | 8.7% | 25.7% | 0.3% |
| 17 | Houston Texans | 50.3% | 8.0 | 20.6% | 34.0% | 0.5% |
| 18 | Arizona Cardinals | 48.2% | 8.8 | 15.9% | 40.2% | 0.6% |
| 19 | Dallas Cowboys | 46.0% | 7.2 | 2.1% | 14.3% | 0.2% |
| 20 | Chicago Bears | 44.1% | 6.6 | 1.1% | 8.7% | 0.1% |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 44.1% | 9.5 | 56.1% | 68.8% | 0.6% |
| 22 | New York Jets | 40.9% | 6.9 | 1.1% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| 23 | Atlanta Falcons | 40.9% | 6.5 | 3.4% | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| 24 | Miami Dolphins | 39.7% | 7.4 | 1.7% | 18.6% | 0.1% |
| 25 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 39.0% | 7.6 | 18.1% | 27.6% | 0.2% |
| 26 | Las Vegas Raiders | 38.5% | 7.8 | 6.3% | 26.6% | 0.1% |
| 27 | New York Giants | 35.6% | 5.1 | 0.2% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| 28 | New Orleans Saints | 35.2% | 6.6 | 5.4% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| 29 | New England Patriots | 34.7% | 6.1 | 0.4% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | 33.8% | 6.0 | 5.2% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | 32.9% | 5.0 | 0.2% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| 32 | Carolina Panthers | 30.40% | 4.8 | 0.97% | 1.84% | 0.0% |
Buffalo Bills +650 (FanDuel) and Baltimore Ravens +750 (FanDuel) to Win Super Bowl
The Ravens are definitely the only team in the AFC capable of having a 15 point lead at Buffalo with 5 minutes to go. Buffalo is definitely the only team in the AFC who can go on a 16-0 run in 5 minutes to beat Baltimore. Bet the Ravens and Bills at FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:
Both teams were around +700 to start the season so the 1 point win shortened Buffalo’s odds and the Ravens got slightly longer but overall their combined implied odds (just under 25%) is tremendous value vs our combined 38% probability. A 38% probability would be roughly a +160 line while the 25% translates to a +300 line. So give us 0.5 a unit on each or pay 2 units to win either +450 or +550.
Green Bay Packers Look Even Better than We Thought
We had a ton of love for the Packers heading into the season and their defense, with Micah Parsons, was spectacular. Our top futures bet was for them to win the NFC North, even before acquiring Parsons. Even though they are below the Eagles in power ranking, the Packers have an easier schedule going forward since they got one Detroit game out of the way and they have a 3rd place NFC schedule. Bet the Pack at Caesars Sportsbook, where you can use the promo code CBS20X to get 20 100% profit boosts:
It’s not presented above but we now have Green Bay as the favorite to win the NFC at 29.3% with Philly at 26.6%. The best odds for Green Bay are at DraftKings, Caesars, and Hard Rock at +425 which implies 19.1%. Philly is at +350 to +360. So even if they had the same odds we’d take Green Bay but at +425 we highly recommend taking the Packers. Philly is still also a good betting value.
Patriots are Highly Overrated Because Drake Maye Is NOT a Top 7 AFC QB
Drake Maye is a good QB. But the rest of the team is not talented enough for them to win over half their games, even with a relatively easy schedule, unless Drake Maye is clearly a Top 7 AFC QB. We had him behind Lamar, Josh, Burrow, Mahomes, Rodgers, Herbert, Nix and Stroud.
But after what we saw from Fields, Trevor and even Geno Smith who he lost to in Week 1, maybe he’s not even a Top 10 QB in a loaded AFC.
Take them to Win Under 8.5 Games at -155 on DraftKings, or Hard Rock while you still can.
Indianapolis Colts Over 7.5 Wins (-140 DraftKings)
We proudly projected the Colts to be much improved with Daniel Jones at QB over Anthony Richardson and had them at 8.1 wins before their 50/50 game vs the Dolphins.
The beatdown of Miami not only gave them a +0.5 win improvement they also had really good stats to make them better than we had them before the win going forward. We now have them at 9.5 wins and you can still get them over 7.5 at a not too steep -140. The combined Neutral Win% of their remaining opponents is just 47.4%, the equivalent of just the 19th best team in the league (7th easiest schedule in the league). Miami was actually one of their tougher opponents on paper.
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The post NFL Power Rankings Week 2, best futures bets: Ravens or Bills to win Super Bowl, Packers win NFC first appeared on OKC Sports Radio.
