Liverpool’s holiday season form makes them Manchester City’s primary Premier League title rivals

While teams around them at the top of the Premier League have lost valuable ground this Christmas period, Liverpool’s consistency has brought them out on top at the start of 2024. A 4-2 home win over Newcastle United on Monday could and arguably should have been even greater, considering how many chances Jurgen Klopp’s men wasted. They finished the match with an eye-popping 7.27 expected goals off of 34 shots. However, the three points at Anfield mean that Liverpool boast seven points in total from a possible nine across a tricky eight-day period which featured three games.

A 1-1 draw at home to Arsenal was followed by a 2-0 win away at Burnley while Mikel Arteta’s title rivals only managed to pick up one point after losing to both West Ham United and Fulham. Aston Villa, who unexpectedly remain second in the English topflight, picked up four points from their three outings after drawing at home to basement club Sheffield United, losing away at chaotic Manchester United and then beating Burnley at home to finish 2023. Defending champions Manchester City have a game in hand which should see them overtake Unai Emery’s Villa and close to within two points of Liverpool, but Pep Guardiola’s men have had form issues of their own until very recently.

The Reds go into the FA Cup week, which will act as vital breather period for those fatigued sides such as Arsenal and Villa in a position of power ahead of a tricky third round clash with the Gunners, and then an EFL Cup semifinal first leg with Fulham before a trip to rejuvenated Bournemouth. Mohamed Salah was on target twice against Newcastle despite failing to open the scoring from the penalty spot in the first half, as Curtis Jones and Cody Gakpo also got in on the action on rainy Merseyside. The win could prove damaging for Magpies boss Eddie Howe, as they find themselves far off the pace being set by Liverpool at present and it is a trip to Newcastle up next for City who are the team chasing Klopp’s side.

A six-goal thriller to open 2024 was typical of this point of the season, but Liverpool showed strength to make light of Alexander Isak’s equalizer against the run of play, and re-establish their lead which eventually proved unassailable for the visitors. Points need to be ground out at every possible occasion, and the Reds have done that perfectly this festive period with these sorts of the results, the ones that truly count when it comes to pulling ahead of the title challengers. Arsenal’s damaging recent run has helped, but Liverpool have made themselves the most consistent title hopefuls coming into the New Year and they are now the team that City will look to keep pace with.

There is a long way to go until the Premier League title race has run its course, but this could be the moment when City were allowed back into it by Arsenal and Villa — who had beaten both the Gunners and Guardiola’s men consecutively — and when the defending champions make it a two-horse race for the time being. City’s old struggles could come back to haunt them until they make up their extra game, but post-FIFA Club World Cup they look focused again which is bad news for the rest of the Premier League. The FA Cup will also factor into it here as one of Liverpool or Arsenal will go out which theoretically aids one title push and hinders another.

For now, though, Liverpool are in the driver’s seat and Klopp will be keen to make sure that it remains the case for as long as possible with no City clash until March and another league meeting with the Gunners next month. Tricky games towards the end of the season such as Villa away also increase the need for points now while others are dropping them, and there is also the UEFA Europa League to factor in on top of both the FA Cup and EFL Cup. Klopp’s men have the hardest part left to do, but getting out front is motivation in itself and the Reds now have that to keep pushing them on over the second half of the campaign.