Last-minute best bets for NFL Week 10: Back these three road teams; Seahawks, Texans win division matchups

Welcome to the second half of the 2025 regular season! While the Broncos and Raiders officially got us started on Thursday, Sunday’s slate is a full look at teams embarking on the stretch run. It’s poised to be a chaotic final nine weeks with teams still bunched up in the standings. 

For instance, three teams in the NFC West are knotted with six wins and everyone in the NFC North either has four or five wins thus far. Moreover, the current playoff picture has the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens on the outside looking in, while teams like the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions are slotted in as wild card clubs. Does that hold throughout the second half or do these teams surge back into form? We’ll begin finding that out here in Week 10. 

Before we get kickoff — which begins early on Sunday with the international game in Berlin, Germany — let’s make sure you’re situated with your bets. Below, you can find out five best bets for the Week 10 slate along with picks for every other contest. 

Teams on bye in Week 10: Dallas, Cincinnati, Tennessee and Kansas City. 

NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet NFL at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

The Patriots are roaring, rolling into Week 10 on a six-game winning streak. While some suspect this is the spot where that run ends, I’m not one of them. I think the Buccaneers are too banged up offensively and don’t match up well against New England’s defense.

Running back Bucky Irving is once again out, which leaves Tampa Bay without its top back while facing the NFL’s No. 1 run defense. As for Baker Mayfield’s pass-catching group, it’s depleted. Mike Evans won’t play as he continues to deal with injury, nor will Chris Godwin. That leaves Emeka Egbuka as the top target. The rookie came out hot, but he has just 117 receiving yards over his last three games and now could be blanketed by Christian Gonzalez.

All of that feels like a recipe for this Bucs offense to struggle, opening the door for New England to squeak out another win and move to 5-0 on the road in 2025.

Projected score: Patriots 27, Buccaneers 20
The pick: Patriots +2.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

• Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC | Fubo, try for free)

This isn’t an overreaction to the Packers losing at home to the Panthers last week. I think Green Bay looked ahead to this game — and for good reason. This is a heavyweight showdown that could have No. 1 seed implications in the NFC. Ultimately, I see this as a bad spot for Green Bay on a couple of fronts.

First, Philadelphia will be well-rested coming off its Week 9 bye and has historically fared well in this spot, owning a 4-0 post-bye record under Nick Sirianni. The second reason I’m wary of Green Bay on Monday night is the absence of Tucker Kraft, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. He has been the key cog in the offense, leading the team in receiving yards. With such a young receiver room, it may take some time for the offense to find its new rhythm, and the Eagles’ revamped, post-deadline defense isn’t the group that will give them many opportunities to do so.

Also, don’t sleep on this angle: It was the Packers who proposed banning the “tush push” last offseason. The vote failed, but they were the ones driving the attempt to remove it from the league. You can bet Sirianni will use that as a motivator in this head-to-head matchup.

Projected score: Eagles 23, Packers 21
The pick: Eagles +1.5

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

There’s a twinge of concern that this could be a letdown spot for the Bills after taking down the Chiefs last week, but I’d be more worried if they weren’t trailing New England in the division race. They know they can’t afford to lose more ground, and the Dolphins aren’t equipped to put up much of a fight.

Miami was just blown out at home by the Ravens last Thursday, which led to the team parting ways with general manager Chris Grier. It also feels like both Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa’s days are numbered. Meanwhile, Josh Allen — who is currently boasting career highs in completion percentage (70%) and yards per attempt (8.2) — has owned the Dolphins. The Bills quarterback is 14-2 and averages three total touchdowns per game against his division foe.

I can see Buffalo getting up big and Miami rolling over.

Projected score: Bills 33, Dolphins 20
The pick: Bills -9.5

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

• Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

The Cardinals will be rolling with Jacoby Brissett in this game. While Arizona’s offense has functioned much better with Brissett under center than it did with Kyler Murray earlier in 2025, I’m not convinced he can keep pace with a Seattle team that looks like a sleeping giant in the NFC.

Defensively, Seattle should be able to get after Brissett, as the Seahawks enter Week 10 with the third-most sacks in the NFL (27). They’re also tied for the third-fewest yards per play allowed (4.7) and rank fifth in points allowed per game (18.8). Pair that with an offense that sits top five in scoring and tied for first in yards per play, and Seattle simply feels like too much, especially at home.

Projected score: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 17
The pick: Seahawks -6.5

Why the Cardinals look better with Jacoby Brissett — and what it really means for Kyler Murray’s future

Zachary Pereles

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

With C.J. Stroud ruled out with a concussion, the Texans will turn to Davis Mills in Week 10. While Stroud’s absence obviously lowers Houston’s ceiling, I still like the Texans in this spot. Mills is a capable backup, and this matchup is more about fading Jacksonville than anything else.

The Jaguars offense is simply hard to believe in, especially with Trevor Lawrence struggling. He ranks 32nd among 33 qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage this season (59.7%), and Jakobi Meyers’ arrival doesn’t magically solve those issues. This is an even tougher matchup for Jacksonville considering Lawrence now faces arguably the best defense in the NFL without top wideout Brian Thomas Jr., who is out with an ankle injury. 

Houston leads the league in points allowed per game (15.1) and yards allowed per game (267.4). I expect the Texans to disrupt Jacksonville’s offense enough that Mills won’t need to do any heavy lifting to keep Houston in control.

Projected score: Texans 23, Jaguars 20
The pick: Texans +1.5

Rest of the bunch

Falcons at Colts (in Berlin)
Projected score: Colts 30, Falcons 20
The pick: Colts -6.5

Giants at Bears
Projected score: Bears 27, Giants 21
The pick: Bears -4.5

Ravens at Vikings
Projected score: Ravens 24, Vikings 21
The pick: Vikings +4.5

Browns at Jets
Projected score: Browns 23, Jets 20
The pick: Browns -2.5

Saints at Panthers
Projected score: Panthers 24, Saints 20
The pick: Saints +5.5

Rams at 49ers
Projected score: Rams 27, 49ers 24
The pick: 49ers +4.5

Lions at Commanders
Projected score: Lions 33, Commanders 20
The pick: Lions -7.5

Steelers at Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 27, Steelers 23
The pick: Chargers -2.5