Chiefs vs. Chargers player props, odds, predictions: Target Patrick Mahomes Over 243.5 passing yards on Friday

For the second straight year, the NFL schedule has a Week 1 Friday night contest in Brazil. The three-time defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs are the road team while their AFC West division rivals, the Los Angeles Chargers, are at “home” in Brazil. The Chiefs have won each of the last seven meetings dating back to 2021, though six of the seven have been via one possession. The featured matchup is between the quarterbacks: Justin Herbert leads an improved Los Angeles team, while Patrick Mahomes continues his ascent among the greatest of all-time for Kansas City. The latest NFL odds list Herbert’s over/under for total passing attempts at 33.5, while Mahomes’ over/under for his longest completion is 35.5 yards. 

Kickoff for Chiefs vs. Chargers on Friday Night Football is set for 8 p.m. ET at Neo Quimica Arena in São Paulo, Brazil. With NFL props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your Chargers vs. Chiefs picks. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, where you can get a $100 No Sweat Bet in FanCash every Game Day:

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. Now, the model has revealed its top Chiefs vs. Chargers NFL player prop picks: 

Best Friday Night Football player prop picks for Week 1:

• Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, Over 245.5 passing yards (-125)
• Ladd McConkey, Chargers, Over 71.5 receiving yards (-114)
• Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs, Under 50.5 rushing yards (-114)

Parlay these picks for +535 odds (risk $100 to win $534) at DraftKings (odds subject to change)

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs, Over 245.5 passing yards (-111)

The model is projecting Mahomes to top 283 yards passing, which gives us approximately 40 yards in wiggle room vs. his over/under. Also consider that the Chiefs’ star quarterback has topped this total in six of his last eight games against the Chargers. Considering that Kansas City may struggle to run against Los Angeles’ defensive line, it’s conceivable to think that Mahomes may be asked to carry a heavier load in the passing game in Week 1. 

Ladd McConkey, Chargers, Over 71.5 receiving yards (-114)

In his rookie season, McConkey topped 71 yards in six of his last seven games, including an impressive 9-197-1 performance in the Chargers loss to Houston in the AFC Wild Card playoff game. In his one appearance against the Chiefs in 2024, the 6’0″ receiver posted a 5-67-1 line but should see double-digit targets on Friday night. The model projects him at 92.9 yards, which is more than 20 yards above the oddsmakers’ yardage line.

Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs, Under 50.5 rushing yards (-114)

The Chiefs were held below four yards per carry in their two games against Los Angeles last season. The model is projecting Kansas City’s No. 1 running back to rush for 38.6 yards, well below his sportsbook total. With Kareem Hunt as the primary pass catching back, any second half deficit could keep Pacheco on the bench for long stretches and limit his chance to top 50 yards rushing.

Want more Week 1 NFL picks?

You’ve seen the model’s NFL picks for Chiefs vs. Chargers player props for Week 1. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every Week 1 NFL game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times. 

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Need more from SportsLine? See the top Week 1 NFL picks from SportsLine NFL expert Adam Silverstein, who is on an 84-53-4 roll (+2577) on his last 141 NFL ATS picks.