Champions League burning questions: Can Barcelona and PSG rise above injuries? Will Bayern avoid upset?

The Champions League is back. Week two of the league phase brings with it a host of absorbing games, none more so than the meeting between Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain at the Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys. A match that many thought was destined to be the 2025 final instead pits two battle-worn sides against each other as they chase a top eight berth.

Meanwhile, there’s Jose Mourinho’s return to Chelsea to look forward to, his Benfica side surely out to heap pressure on Enzo Maresca just as murmurings of dissatisfaction build among the Stamford Bridge faithful. Then there’s games that could deliver some of the great Champions League upsets: Real Madrid in Kazakhstan to face Kairat Almaty, Pafos‘ first home Champions League game pitting them against Bayern Munich. Those games are among those that we’re going to pick the bones of in this week’s edition of four burning questions:

1. Will PSG and Barcelona give us a clash worthy of a final?

Tuesday brings the game so many of us expected to be getting on May 31. Inter’s edging of the semifinals offered all the thrills and drama that the final didn’t, but the obduracy of Yann Sommer meant that there was no chance to see Europe’s two finest attacks go at each other blow for blow in a Barcelona, Paris Saint-Germain match up. This time the stakes are far lower — either of these sides can probably afford to lose and still finish in the top eight of the league phase — and the talent might not be what it could be.

The best player from last season’s Champions League is missing, Raphinha sidelined for a fortnight or more, while the most decisive players from PSG’s winning run also sit somewhere between doubts and confirmed absentees. Ballon d’Or holder Ousmane Dembele has long been a major doubt, in Saturday’s 2-0 win over Auxerre Khvicha Kvaratskhelia joined him on the sidelined with what appeared to be a thigh muscle issue. Vitinha soon followed. That is the tip of a particularly crummy iceberg; any neutral would surely love to see a bit of Joao Neves, Joan Garcia, Gavi, Desire Doue, Marquinhos and Alejandro Balde at the Olympic Stadium.

Game over as a spectacle then? Not quite. For starters there should still be plenty of stars shining bright, none more than Lamine Yamal, who took only a minute to mark his return from injury in brilliant fashion, the slightest threat that he might cut onto his left foot enough for Real Sociedad to give him all the space he wanted down the right to deliver a cross for Robert Lewandowski to head home the winner. The mere existence of his battle against Nuno Mendes down the flanks makes this game box office. So does the chance that Pedri and Frenkie De Jong might be afforded to flex their best midfield in the world credentials in the absence of so many PSG stars.

Yes, some of the talent might be missing, but the systems, the styles, they make for an intriguing matchup whatever the personnel. How does Barcelona’s stick everyone in the opposition half and chase them into submission approach out of possession hold up against a team as capable of playing through the lines as PSG (and indeed when it’s Wojciech Szczesny on the other half of the pitch)? The holders at their best seem defined by the fluidity with which they position themselves, can that hold up in a heavily changed team? Luis Enrique was at great pains to praise the selfless approach of his players last season, might we see an even more organized and united group now it is shorn of its stars?

Without those big names on both sides this might not be the game it could have been: Dembele’s harassing energy, the sheer ingenuity of Raphinha and Kvaratskhelia. And yet if last season taught us anything it’s that you rarely get the games you want in football. That doesn’t mean that what you get instead isn’t very special.

2. Is Arsenal’s left eight getting more cautious?

When Arsenal swooped in to sign Martin Zubimendi earlier this year, winning a transfer battle that had proven to be beyond Liverpool and Manchester City, it seemed the setup of their midfield was established for the next half decade. The Spaniard was an upgrade on what they’d had before in the single pivot and Declan Rice, who seemed like he might be the man for that spot on his arrival from West Ham in 2023, would continue his largely impressive work as Arsenal’s left eight. That would mean the same somewhat lower touch role defined by late arrival into the penalty area, running power off and off the ball and those monstrous regains high up the pitch.

Then there were the first hints that something might be different in preseason, where Mikel Arteta lined his team up in a double pivot of Rice and Zubimendi. That surely was just getting another look at what his Arsenal team could do away from what would be their base template, right? Perhaps, perhaps not. What appears to be the case through the first six games of the Premier League season is that the Gunners’ left eight is sitting a little deeper, involving himself in the final third a little less frequently.

Rice has started five of those games — Mikel Merino was rewarded for his form in a Spain shirt against Nottingham Forest — and has seen the proportion of his touches that are in the attacking third drop from 37% to 28%. His shots per 90 minutes have almost halved, indeed he has not had a shot from open play in the Premier League since the opening weekend. His touches in zone 14, that prime real estate just outside the box, have cratered.

To which the answer might be obvious. Have you seen Arsenal’s fixture list? At Liverpool, at Newcastle United, at a rarely competent Manchester United, at home to Manchester City. These are the sort of games where, whether you plan for it or not, Rice might just have to sit deep. 

It is not as if the other games have offered much in the way of data points. Against both Leeds and Nottingham Forest, Arsenal lost Martin Odegaard to first half shoulder injuries. Given that Ethan Nwaneri is inclined to take more risks with possession, did Rice and Merino position themselves a little more cautiously to cover for that? It is not as if Rice advancing forward from midfield is verboten, he did so with great efficacy at St. James’ Park on Sunday and even in this deeper role, he has been better than many give him credit for. If this is the way forward it may not be a bad thing for Arsenal but for now at least it is not yet clear whether it is anything more than a reaction to the games Arsenal have had.

The suspicion is the latter. Perhaps that will become clearer against Olympiacos, when Arteta should be able to name his first choice midfield given Odegaard’s return to training on Friday. 

3. Can Chelsea move Jose Mourinho’s parked bus?

This question relies on two pretty significant assumptions: that Benfica will turn up and try to frustrate Chelsea with a defensive gameplan, and that they are capable of executing that approach. The first one is hard to get a read on. Mourinho was only appointed Benfica manager on September 18, and, as ever with Portugal’s top clubs, how they approach games against Gil Vicente and Rio Ave only give us a hint of how they might look to deal with Chelsea. As to whether they can defend well enough to prey on the nerves of their hosts, you wouldn’t think so if you saw them in action against Qarabag. The again, since then they’ve got Mourinho in the dugout and that man can coach defensive shape.

Let us assume that Benfica can keep up their end of the bargain, that the Special One gets to take us back 20 years to the time when his every utterance changed football’s lexicon. Their opposition have parked the bus. Can Chelsea move it? Maresca knows how much of a challenge it will be, saying, “I think from Benfica you can expect the way they are playing now, 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1 but you can also expect that they can play back five. So I expect two or three different things and we have a plan for these two or three things that I expect.”

For all the flaws that have been apparent at Chelsea in their faltering over recent weeks — a win over Lincoln, a draw and three defeats in their last five — Maresca’s side have seemed just about fine controlling a game where they are level or behind when 11 against 11, at least unless they are up against Bayern Munich. The more cautious way in which they build attacks might frustrate supporters but it ensures that they don’t leave the back door open for a counter that might be Benfica’s best chance of nicking one. Since the start of last season they rank a comfortable third in the Premier League for non-penalty expected goal difference (npxGD) when tied. The problems with their caution were apparent when they took the lead against Brighton on Saturday and seemed to stop playing even before Trevoh Chalobah’s red card. Again this is reflected in the analytics, Chelsea are seventh for npxGD when leading with Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal the top three. Other teams go for the throat, too often Maresca’s does not look to land the killer blow.

If guile is required to carve up the Benfica backline then Cole Palmer’s absence will surely be felt but if Maresca trust Enzo Fernandez in the attacking midfield role he can at least expect to get some of the goal threat he’d get from his No.10. Opta’s sample size of Fernandez playing in a more advanced role is not huge but since the start of last season they have him averaging 0.54 npxG and 0.1 expected assists when freed from the double pivot. Against Brighton this weekend and Aston Villa in February he showed a Lampardian quality for finding prime space in the box to turn in at close range, the sort of qualities that will be vital if Benfica try to pack their box, particularly with Joao Pedro a doubt. Chelsea’s success will also require wingers who can stretch the game to the bylines to make space for Fernandez et al. Alejandro Garnacho and Pedro Neto are capable of doing so, Estevao Willian is proving he can on a regular basis.

“He’s doing very good, he’s doing very well,” said Maresca of Estevao. “It’s not easy. We said already for a 17,18-year-old player to arrive here in Europe with a big club like Chelsea and show immediately the quality that he has. We are very happy with him. He’s a very good boy. It’s what we need also in terms of energy.”

Chelsea should then have all the ingredients they need to carve their way through Benfica. If doing so sees Maresca quieten some of the adulation that Stamford Bridge will surely direct at Mourinho, well that is all the sweeter.

4. Why can’t I help but think Pafos are going to beat Bayern Munich?

Look this is really a me problem, not you. You’re probably pretty convinced that Bayern Munich, scorers of *checks notes* 28 goals in their first seven games of the season, are going to teach Champions League debutants Pafos some cruel but necessary lessons about what life is like in the big leagues. You are almost certainly correct.

And yet I can’t shake the sense that the one mega-upset we get every season in the Champions League is coming. In my pre-tournament pick every game column I went for a Pafos win. In this week’s picks I held firm. Bayern, I maintain, are a very good team. They might win the Champions League and it not be a great shock. Still there is something that I, a man paid to explain soccer, can’t put my finger on.

Maybe it’s the fact that the player pool at Pafos doesn’t look half bad at all. There’s certainly some obduracy to a team who held Olympiacos goalless when spending over an hour down a man in their league phase opener, the Greek champions held to just 1.52 xG with a spare man (it’s equally impressive that in those first 25 minutes Pafos held them to just one shot).

More than that, though, there’s something about Bayern that has you thinking they could be upset here. Maybe it’s the fact that they’re no longer the model of efficiency on (and particularly off) the pitch that they were when Germany was world football’s poster child 15 years ago. Even if a fair few of their center backs have improved under Vincent Kompany, they feel like they have a rick in them. Whatever the reason, they just don’t feel like the best Bayerns, the teams who might not win it all but who would very rarely make it more difficult for themselves.

This might look incredibly foolish come Tuesday at 5 p.m. ET. It might even look incredibly foolish by 3:10 p.m. Know this, however. I’m feeling something here.