Rockets X-factor Reed Sheppard empties his bag in electric preseason finale

If you were waiting for a Reed Sheppard breakout game, you got it on Thursday in the Rockets‘ preseason finale — a 133-115 victory over the basically full-strength Hawks in which Sheppard rattled off 29 points in 29 minutes, six assists, six rebounds, four steals and three blocks. 

Before we get to the offense, those seven stocks (steals + blocks) are a serious number and probably not a fluke. Sheppard blocked a ton a shots as a 6-foot-3 guard at Kentucky, and his disruptive defense was regarded as an element that could very well transfer to the NBA. This sequence is Sheppard at his best, poking a ball loose from Trae Young, one of the best handlers in the world, and pulling up for a 3 on the other end. 

Even in limited action as a rookie, Sheppard averaged basically two steals and a block per 36 minutes last year. One of the reasons the Fred VanVleet injury feels like such a blow to Houston’s title chances is the defense FVV provided at the top of possessions. Sheppard is more of a defensive playmaker as opposed to the guy who can jam up your whole possession with ball pressure and switchability, but nonetheless, the idea that he’s a potential defensive liability might not have a ton of merit. We have to see it in real samples, but he could create havoc.

And if that’s the case, the ceiling might be pretty high for Sheppard given what most people think he can do on the offensive end, at least eventually, when and if he gets his opportunity to really cut loose. That’s probably not going to happen this season given that Houston is going to be playing offense through the likes of Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun, but on Thursday you saw Sheppard’s total package in its most confident and unrestrained glory. 

Notice the variety of Sheppard’s scoring. Off the dribble. Off the catch. In the midrange, where he gets great lift and separation on his pull-ups. A comfortable floater. A crafty off-hand finish at the rim. Great vision as a passer out of pick and roll, slinging a bullet pass to the opposite corner for a 3. Drawing attention as a driver to set up a dump-off dunk. 

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Sheppard had full control of the offense because Houston was sitting all its regulars. No Durant. No Sengun. No Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason or Steven Adams. But importantly, Atlanta was playing all of its main guys other than Dyson Daniels. Sheppard was doing this against real competition, including Nickeil Alexander-Walker, one of the tougher perimeter defenders around. 

Suffice it to say, this season represents a huge opportunity for Sheppard to step into the void left by VanVleet. Amen Thompson will probably be the starting point guard, at least as a de facto, but Sheppard’s shooting is a weapon Thompson can’t provide. The ultimate dream is for those two guys to share the back court as perfect complements, and we’re going to see them together a lot this season. 

Sheppard might not need to be a full-time starter for Houston right now, but make no mistake, with VanVleet out, and barring an in-season trade for an established point guard, Sheppard probably has to make a real impact this season if Houston is going to contend. He’s the X-factor. Whether Thompson is ready to run point is a question, but he’s going to be an awesome player one way or another. We know that. Just as we know what Durant and Sengun are going to do. And the defense. 

Sheppard is the real unknown, and if he breaks out, it could genuinely swing Houston’s contention needle. And watching him play like he did on on Thursday certainly gives you some real hope that can happen sooner than later. 

Now, he won’t get the kind of usage he got on Thursday, but still, you can see everything Sheppard’s got in his bag when he really puts his foot on the gas. Houston certainly won’t mind giving him an increasingly green light as the season progresses if he’s scoring efficiently and holding up defensively, and if that happens, Houston becomes an even more dangerous team with this kind of point-guard threat.