Tigers vs. Guardians prediction, odds, start time: 2025 MLB picks, best bets for AL Wild Card Game 1 by model

After battling to the last day of the regular season, American League Central rivals clash when the Detroit Tigers meet the division-winning Cleveland Guardians in Game 1 of the Wild Card round on Tuesday. Cleveland had trailed Detroit by as many as 15.5 games in July before making up all the ground and winning the division by one game. The Tigers (87-75), who went just 2-8 down the stretch, are 41-40 on the road this season. The Guardians (88-74), who won seven of 10, are 45-36 on their home field in 2025.

First pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland is set for 1:08 p.m. ET. The all-time series is tied 1,166-1,166, with Cleveland winning eight of 13 games during the regular season. Detroit is a -166 favorite on the money line (risk $166 to win $100) in the latest Tigers vs. Guardians odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 6. Before making any Tigers vs. Guardians picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered the final weeks of the 2025 MLB regular season a profitable 34-28 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks this season, returning more than 25 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Tigers vs. Guardians and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Guardians vs. Tigers:

Why the Tigers can win

Left-hander Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2.21 ERA) will get the start for Detroit. In 31 games, all starts, the team’s ace has allowed 141 hits, 48 earned runs and 33 walks with 241 strikeouts in 195.1 innings. In his last two starts against the Guardians, he has allowed just 11 hits, four runs – two earned – and five walks with 17 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. In their Sept. 23 meeting, he took the loss despite allowing just one earned run on four hits in six innings. He walked three and struck out eight.

Left fielder Riley Greene helps power the offense. In 157 games played, he batted .258 with 31 doubles, one triple, 36 home runs and 111 RBI. In Detroit’s last series at Cleveland Sept. 23-25, Greene went 4-for-10 with two home runs and two runs scored. He was 2-for-4 with an RBI in a 6-2 loss to the Atlanta Braves on Sept. 21. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Guardians can win

Cleveland is expected to send right-hander Gavin Williams (12-5, 3.06 ERA) to the mound. Williams’ last two decisions came against the Tigers in the waning weeks of the regular season. In a 5-2 win over the Tigers on Sept. 23, he pitched six innings, allowing four hits, two earned runs, two walks and 12 strikeouts. He went five innings in a 4-0 win at Detroit on Sept. 17, allowing three hits, no runs and two walks with nine strikeouts. In 31 starts this season, he allowed 130 hits, 57 earned runs and 152 walks with 333 strikeouts.

Among the Guardians’ top hitters is left fielder Steven Kwan. In 156 games played, he hit .272 with 29 doubles, one triple, 55 walks and 21 stolen bases. He hit .308 against the Tigers this season with five doubles and five RBI. In the Sept. 23 win over Detroit, he was 2-for-4 with a double. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Tigers vs. Guardians picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, and it says one side of the money line has all the value. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s MLB picks. 

So who wins Tigers vs. Guardians, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.