UTEP vs. New Mexico State odds, line, spread: 2023 college football picks, Week 8 computer model predictions

The UTEP Miners aim to build on a solid road win a week ago when they take the field on Wednesday. UTEP toppled FIU by a 20-13 margin, and the Miners will host the New Mexico State Aggies at the Sun Bowl this week. UTEP is 2-5 overall this season, though the Miners did defeat New Mexico State on the road a season ago. New Mexico State is 4-3 overall and 2-1 against Conference USA opponents, entering this game on a two-game winning streak.

SportsLine consensus lists New Mexico State as a 3-point favorite for this 9 p.m. ET kickoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 47.5 in the latest New Mexico State vs. UTEP odds. Before making any New Mexico State vs. UTEP picks, you need to see the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of more than $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed the model has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on New Mexico State vs. UTEP and identified its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for UTEP vs. New Mexico State:

• New Mexico State vs. UTEP spread: NM State -3
• New Mexico State vs. UTEP over/under: 47.5 points
• New Mexico State vs. UTEP money line: NM State -147, UTEP +124
• New Mexico State: The Aggies are 4-2-1 against the spread this season
• UTEP: The Miners are 2-5 against the spread this season
• New Mexico State vs. UTEP picks: See picks at SportsLine
• New Mexico State vs. UTEP live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why New Mexico State can cover

New Mexico State has clear strengths and the program is also positioned to maximize UTEP’s weaknesses. The Aggies are facing a UTEP defense that is giving up 6.0 yards per play, with the worst mark in Conference USA in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.0) and per rush attempt (4.9). Opponents are converting 43.4% of third down chances against UTEP, and New Mexico State is in the top 10 of the country in averaging 7.0 yards per play. New Mexico State is leading Conference USA with 5.9 yards per carry on the ground this season, and dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia has more than 2,000 total yards and is coming off a win over Sam Houston State with 286 passing yards and 115 rushing yards. 

On defense, New Mexico State is allowing only 23.1 points per game and 3.9 yards per carry this season, and UTEP has the second-fewest points (17.7 per game) in Conference USA. The Miners are completing only 54.1% of passes with eight interceptions and only eight passing touchdowns, and UTEP is generating only 5.0 yards per play on offense. See which team to back here.

Why UTEP can cover

UTEP’s offense features a trio of highly productive skill players. The Miners have two of the top five rushers in Conference USA this season, with Torrance Burgess Jr. racking up 452 rushing yards and Deion Hankins adding 442 rushing yards. That pairing leads UTEP to a top-tier mark in rushing yards per game (156.0) among Conference USA teams, and Kelly Akharaiyi is one of the best wide receivers in the conference. Akharaiyi caught eight passes for 223 yards and two touchdowns in UTEP’s last game against FIU, and he is No. 4 in Conference USA in receiving yards (513) for the season. 

On defense, UTEP has excellent metrics against the pass. The Miners have 16 sacks, second-most in Conference USA, and UTEP has allowed only seven touchdown passes, fewest in the conference. UTEP’s opponents have allowed only a 58.3% completion rate this season, and senior linebacker Tyrice Knight leads all of Conference USA with 82 tackles, a mark that ranks No. 3 among all FBS players. See which team to pick here.

How to make UTEP vs. New Mexico State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over the point total, predicting 56 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can see the model’s picks at SportsLine. 

So who wins New Mexico State vs. UTEP, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has notched a profit of more than $2,000 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.