Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, odds: Soccer expert reveals 2022 La Liga picks, bets for May 8

More than bragging rights are on the line for Atletico Madrid on Sunday when it hosts Real Madrid in El Derbi Madrileño in the Spanish La Liga. Atletico (18-7-9) need to keep gaining points to hold on to its fourth-place position in La Liga’s table and secure a Champions League spot for next season. It is three points clear of Real Betis with four games left, but it has a very tough remaining schedule. Real (25-6-3) clinched its 35th La Liga title last weekend with a 4-0 win against Espanyol. It could rest some players after an exhilarating but draining Champions League victory over Manchester City on Wednesday to advance to the final. But this is a fierce rivalry, so Real should be looking for a victory even with nothing else to play for.

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET at Wanda Metropolitano Stadium in Madrid, Spain. Caesars Sportsbook lists Atletico as the +106 favorite (risk $100 to win $106) on the 90-minute money line in its latest Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid odds, with Real the +260 underdog. A draw is priced at +245 and the over-under for total goals scored is set at 2.5. Before locking in Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid picks, you need to see what soccer insider Martin Green has to say.

After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since then, his European soccer picks have been stunningly accurate. Green has generated almost $36,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season, and he has his finger on the pulse of the game all over the globe.

Now, Green has broken down Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid from all sides and just locked in his picks and La Liga predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid:

• Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid spread: Atletico -0.5 (+100)
• Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid over-under: 2.5 goals
• Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid money line: Atletico +106, Real +260, Draw +245
• Atletico: It has 17 goals in its past 10 league games but was shut out three times.
• Real: It has scored at least twice in 12 of its past 13 matches in all competitions.

Why you should back Atletico Madrid

Los Rojiblancos have a prime opportunity to end a long losing streak to their bitter rivals. Real is either going to rest some key players or have some very weary men on the pitch. The latter is expected, but either way, it sets up well for Atletico. And it won the league title last season, so it certainly has talent. Angel Correa and Luis Suarez share the team lead with 11 goals apiece, while Yannick Carrasco and Matheus Cunha have scored five times. All will be vying to start for Atletico, which will get strong backing from the home crowd and has lost just twice there.

Joao Felix (eight goals) is likely out with a hamstring issue, but Antoine Griezmann (three goals, two assists) makes things happen in attack. Atletico’s defense has been a sore spot most of the season, yielding 41 goals in the 34 matches. But manager Diego Simeone has shifted his tactics, and the unit has conceded just seven over the past 10 games. The squad has yielded the fewest shots (304) and shots on target (83) in La Liga. Real had just seven shots and three on net in the December meeting but won 2-0. Atletico also has scored the third-most goals (59).       

Why you should back Real Madrid

It isn’t clear how manager Carlo Ancelotti will play it Sunday, but he could go after a win in this rivalry match and rest his players later. That would mean Karim Benzema (league-high 26 goals) and Vinicius Junior (14) would be out there. Rodrygo could join them — or play a bigger role if either sits out — after scoring two huge goals in Wednesday’s UCL victory. Rodrygo has six goals in his last six appearances. Benzema has scored at least once in 12 of his last 14 matches in all competitions, including the winner on a penalty kick against Man City. He also leads La Liga with 11 assists.

Los Blancos also have a superb midfield, with veterans Toni Kroos and Luka Modric setting up the attackers and Casemiro playing relentlessly on both ends. Los Rojiblancos haven’t won a league matchup against their rivals since 2016, with Real outscoring them 6-1 in the past four. Real is the highest-scoring team in the league (73 goals) while conceding the second-fewest goals (29). Atletico also has failed to score in five of its past six games overall, while Real has 18 goals over the same span. Los Blancos have gained one more point on the road than they have at home this season.

How to make Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid picks

Green has scrutinized the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid match from every angle, and he is leaning under on the goal total. He also provides two confident best bets, both offering plus-money payouts, and has a full breakdown of the match. He’s only sharing those picks here.

Who wins Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid in Sunday’s La Liga matchup? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid match, all from the European soccer expert who has generated almost $36,000 for $100 bettors over the past four seasons.