Predicting Kylian Mbappe’s first season at Real Madrid: How many goals will he score? Will they win UCL?

One of the major storylines in this coming European soccer season will be how Kylian Mbappe fares with Real Madrid after joining the Spanish and European giants from Paris Saint-Germain. The France international captain arrives at Santiago Bernabeu to predictably grandiose fanfare and the expectation is that the 25-year-old is about to write one of the major chapters of his career to date in Spain’s capital city.

However, the pressure is also on Mbappe with no UEFA Champions League nor Ballon d’Or to his name — something which he had largely been expected to win at least once each by this point in his career. History tells us that top players go to Real to win these sorts of titles which was certainly the case for fellow Frenchman Karim Benzema in 2022 although Zinedine Zidane did pick up his 1998 title while still with Juventus.

Although Mbappe did win the FIFA 2018 World Cup with Les Bleus, the anticipated UEFA Euro success has not yet happened over the 2020 and 2024 editions and four semifinal brushes with the UCL have only resulted in one final loss even though it looked doable with PSG last year. The former AS Monaco man is ready to live out his childhood dream and follow in the footsteps of his icon Cristiano Ronaldo but he will need to hit the ground running if he is to avoid rapid criticism.

We look ahead at what Mbappe and Real can hope to achieve together in their first season.

La Liga

There is no true domestic competition for Real looking ahead to the coming season in Spain with La Liga likely to be dominated by Carlo Ancelotti’s men. Bitter rivals Barcelona were 10 points off the pace last term and do not exactly look that much stronger this time around and remain in financial difficulty while surprise package Girona FC have been picked apart and Atletico Madrid seem more or less at the same level despite a retool. Athletic Club might be able to shift up a few places in the table to challenge but their Basque-only policy will have its limits even if star man Nico Williams stays on as expected. A successful title defense appears to be Mbappe and Real’s to throw away — at least on paper.
Prediction: Champions

UEFA Champions League

Real will come into this campaign’s UCL as favorites to defend their title given the changes made to their squad which looks even stronger than it was last time out. However, the jeopardy factor is greater this season given that it will be the first time that UEFA has implemented the new format which makes the group stage longer. Therefore, the possibility that Los Blancos come up against tough opposition earlier in the competition is increased and it is harder to predict just how far Ancelotti and his players will go. Few teams are as stacked as Real across the board, but so much of Champions League success is built around fortune when it comes to the draw and keeping players fit that tipping the Spanish giants to defend their title is a big call without their group opponents even being known.
Prediction: Semifinalists

Copa del Rey

With just two wins from the last 11 editions and only those two outings in a Copa del Rey final, it feels as if a major domestic cup trophy should be a key aim for Real this term. In top of that, Mbappe will want to win as many titles as possible in his debut year. With the field as limited as it is in La Liga, the luck of the draw will of course influence how things play out. That said, Los Merengues are Spain’s strongest side by some way right now so do not rule out a domestic double in their first campaign with the French hotshot.
Prediction: Champions

UEFA Super Cup

This could be Mbappe’s first taste of silverware with Real and given that Atalanta BC have just lost star striker Gianluca Scamacca to injury, the encounter in Warsaw is a little less challenging than it might have been with the Italian attacker. Gian Piero Gasperini’s men should not be underestimated but La Dea are unlikely to cause too many issues if the Spaniards really set their minds to winning this one.
Prediction: Champions

Supercopa Espana

With the field already set to feature Real, Barca, Athletic and RCD Mallorca, this looks like a fairly straightforward trophy grab come next January — if Ancelotti and his players take it seriously that is. Due to take place in Saudi Arabia again, Los Blancos have won three of the last five since the switch to a four-team format so do not be surprised if they pick up another title.
Prediction: Champions

FIFA Club World Cup

Although there are major doubts over not only Real’s participation but also the event taking place itself, this one still has to be mentioned as it will be part of next summer’s soccer calendar. Assuming that it does go ahead and Real are there, Mbappe and his Merengue teammates could come up against his former club PSG given that Les Parisiens are one of a number of clubs to have qualified thanks to their UFA four-year ranking although Real are there as former UCL winners along with Manchester City and Chelsea. Given its timing and how recent its revamp is, it is debatable how seriously the biggest clubs will take this competition while still in its infancy.
Prediction: Too early to tell

Ballon d’Or

Although much will depend upon Mbappe’s competitors, a haul of La Liga, Copa del Rey, Supercopa Espana and UEFA Super Cup could still be missing the Champions League. Win in the UCL and it could be a different conversation entirely, but the chance of Real and their new French superstar pulling off a domestic and continental clean sweep of trophies in their first year together seems a bit too optimistic. Do not be surprised if Mbappe is still waiting for the individual recognition that he craves comes the 2025-26 season.
Goals prediction for Mbapppe: 25-30 goals