Packers vs. Vikings prediction, line, spread, odds: 2022 NFL picks, Week 1 best bets from model on 138-97 run

The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers will both be looking for an early leg up on the 2022 NFL season when they face off on Sunday afternoon in Week 1. The NFC North rivals split the two meetings last season, with each team winning at home. The Packers won the most recent matchup 37-10 at Lambeau Field in Week 17 last year, but Minnesota was missing Kirk Cousins, who had a bout with COVID. Cousins led the Vikings to a 34-31 victory in the meeting in Minneapolis in Week 11, and they finished the season 8-9. The Packers went 13-4 to win the NFC North as Aaron Rodgers won his second consecutive league MVP award.

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. Green Bay is a 2-point road favorite in the latest Packers vs. Vikings odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the Over/Under for total points scored is set at 46.5. Before you consider any Vikings vs. Packers picks or NFL predictions, you need to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 138-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Amazingly, it hasn’t missed a top-rated pick since Week 15 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has broken down Sunday’s Packers vs. Vikings matchup and just locked in its picks and NFL Week 1 predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Vikings vs. Packers:  

• Packers vs. Vikings spread: Vikings -2
• Packers vs. Vikings Over/Under: 46.5 points 
• Packers vs. Vikings money line: Green Bay +110, Minnesota -130
• GB: Packers are 39-10 straight-up (32-17 ATS) in the regular season under Matt LaFleur 
• MIN: Vikings are 13-10-1 ATS in division games since Cousins arrived in 2018 
• Packers vs. Vikings picks: See picks here

Why the Packers can cover

As long as Rodgers is in the mix, the Packers have a chance to win big and the future Hall of Famer has played well against Minnesota. He is averaging 332 passing yards with 13 TD passes and no interceptions over the past four meetings. The Vikings had the fifth-worst pass defense in the NFL last season, allowing 253 passing yards per game. Green Bay also has a pair of running backs who can do damage. The Packers are 7-0 ATS without Davante Adams since 2019, and running back Aaron Jones averaged 112 total yards and scored 10 TDs in those games.

AJ Dillon led the team in rushing last season with 803 yards (Jones had 799 in 15 games). Both also are threats in the passing game, combining for 704 receiving yards, and they accounted for 17 TDs. The Packers are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games against NFC teams. They were ninth in total defense last season (328 yards per game), while the Vikings ranked 30th (384). Rashan Gary and Preston Smith combined for 18.5 sacks in 2021, and the Packers had 26 takeaways, with their plus-13 turnover differential being the third-best in the NFL.

Why the Vikings can cover

The Vikings have underachieved the past two seasons, last making the postseason in 2019, but they have plenty of talent on offense. They also added former Green Bay star pass rusher Za’Darius Smith on defense. The 30-year-old played just 18 snaps last season because of a back injury, but had 26 sacks the previous two years. He will get after Rodgers, who doesn’t have many receivers to strike fear into opponents after Adams was traded to Las Vegas. Minnesota, on the other hand, has one of the best young wideouts in the NFL in Justin Jefferson.

Jefferson has the most yards (3,016) by a receiver in his first two seasons in NFL history. Veteran Adam Thielen (726 yards, 10 TDs in 2021) also can make plays, along with Dalvin Cook. The running back trails only Derrick Henry in rushing yards (3,851) and rushing TDs (35) over the past three seasons. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and the Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on FieldTurf. They were in 14 one-possession games last season, the most in league history, and lost twice in overtime.

How to make Packers vs. Vikings picks

The model has broken down Sunday’s matchup from every angle, and it is leaning Over on the point total, with the model suggesting the quarterbacks will combine for close to 500 yards. It also says that one side of the spread has all of the value. You can only get the model’s Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Vikings vs. Packers on Sunday? And which side of the spread has all of the value? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Packers vs. Vikings spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 138-97 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.