NFL Week 16 picks, odds: Rodgers makes MVP statement on Christmas, Patriots hand Bills another bitter defeat

Week 15 is up there in terms of the most insanely bizarre NFL weeks I’ve ever seen. Obviously having two games Monday and two games Tuesday is a good start to that, 

The Texans scored 30 points in a cakewalk victory, the Lions beat the Cardinals and Tom Brady scored zero points in a home, prime-time loss. It was a weird week all around, fittingly coming in the longest week in NFL history. 

Hopefully everyone can have a winning and happy Christmas, and in the spirit of Christmas miracles, I’m going to write up fewer of these picks and toss some scores for meaningless games at the bottom. 

My ATS record against the spread this year is just awful, but 9-5 last week is strong. A strong close to the season can salvage this year ATS so let’s get hot over the holidays. 

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 16 Picks

49ers at Titans

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App

Week 15 featured plenty of underdogs barking loudly, so I’m a little hesitant to jump onto a road favorite on a short week. But the 49ers are starting to cook. Deebo Samuel appears to be the catalyst for this run game, with his presence in the backfield wrecking havoc on opposing defenses. Kyle Shanahan’s playcalling has been outstanding and the Niners appear to have a pretty good stable of backs capable of producing on a weekly basis — with Elijah Mitchell out, Jeff Wilson stepped up nicely against the Falcons. Tennessee has been good against the run this season but the 49ers should be able to stretch them horizontally. The one thing I’d be wary of if you’re backing Jimmy Garoppolo and Co. here is the return of A.J. Brown and/or Julio Jones. The latter isn’t concerning based on his recent performance but a quasi-revenge matchup against Kyle Shanahan would at least be worth watching. 

The pick: 49ers 28, Titans 21
Props, Best Bets: 49ers -3.5

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Browns at Packers

Saturday (Christmas), 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App

The Browns should get a wave of replacements back from the COVID list heading into Saturday’s Christmas game in Green Bay and they’re catching a full touchdown here. Extremely intriguing! But then I start to think about watching Aaron Rodgers on his ‘Eff You Tour,’ at home, in front of a huge crowd on Christmas against a defense that has looked good but got banged up Monday against the Raiders and is playing on a short week. Rodgers held on against the Ravens in the late window on Sunday, then got to watch Tom Brady lay a massive egg against the Saints while losing his top two receivers. The reigning MVP knows this year’s MVP race — plus the race for the No. 1 seed — just got wide open and is probably aware of the buzz surrounding Jonathan Cooper and Cooper Kupp. I do not have much interest in getting in front of him here, even though I tend to think a healthy Browns offense could run fine against Green Bay if everyone is healthy. But Green Bay should be able to score early and then lean into Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

The pick: Packers 31, Browns 17
Props, Best Bets: Over 44

Colts at Cardinals

Saturday (Christmas), 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: NFLN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App

I’m a little surprised the line hasn’t moved to make the Colts favorites in this game, but maybe we’re overselling the Cardinals problems? The Colts also made it VERY clear how important the game against New England was. Frank Reich basically described it as their Super Bowl. If you’re willing to discard the 2019 “Andrew Luck Retires During Training Camp” season, Reich is 10-2 in December (1-4 in 2019). Matt Eberflus’ defense simply doesn’t give up big rushing games to mobile quarterbacks. Multiple games against Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson the last two years have resulted in minimal damage on the ground. 

The Pick: Colts 24, Cardinals 21
Props, Best Bets: Colts +1

Ravens at Bengals

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Massive, massive game for the AFC North here. No one is getting eliminated, but a Bengals sweep of the Ravens would put them in the driver’s seat for the division. I initially wanted to wait and see if Lamar Jackson was playing before betting this game but John Harbaugh sure does sound like someone who is preparing to try and steal a game with Tyler Huntley. Huntley was way better than expected in that game and that performance has to give Harbaugh pause before he plays Lamar. Baltimore is on thin ice for the playoffs but a healthy Lamar can win the next two games and they’ll be fine. The calculus of playing Lamar too early and not having him for a playoff run doesn’t add up. Joe Burrow laying an egg against the Browns might be an outlier — it looks like he wants to shred division opponents. This is a spot to grab the division and Baltimore is banged up, so I’ll take Burrow in a statement game.

The Pick: Bengals 35, Ravens 28
Bets: Bengals -2.5, Joe Burrow overs

Lions at Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Have you seen this absurd spread? The Falcons are favored by nearly a touchdown against the spread-covering Terminator Detroit Lions. I hate the 2021 Falcons. But I think I’ve finally figured them out — they beat up on really bad teams and get smoked by anything remotely resembling a playoff team. The Lions try really hard but after their other win of the season, they lost 38-10 to the Broncos. When you’re living on 78 ounces of Dan Campbell being injected into your veins a day, there’s going to be a natural endorphin crash after you celebrate a win. This is a clear Matt Ryan/Cordarrelle Patterson blowup spot. The Jared Goff situation is in flux with amended protocols, so it’s impossible to know how that plays out. I’d guess the line moves over a touchdown quickly if Goff was out, but we might not know until Saturday. If you can get the Falcons under a touchdown, I’d take it. Anything more and you wait until the Goff news comes out.

The Pick: Falcons 24, Lions 14
Bets: Falcons -6, Kyle Pitts anytime touchdown

Bills at Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

The Patriots were a clear play here before the prime-time windfest, but the Bills’ COVID issues could shoot this line up over three, which is a little concerning if you get the full Bills offense. Buffalo scares the hell out of me right now — Sean McDermott’s been on tilt for three or four weeks since the wind game, a crazy comeback against the Bucs where he was crying at halftime and then playing his old team. He might just be crazy enough to pull off an upset … but Belichick after a loss weighs substantially more on this game. Factor in the Bills’ inability to stop the run, how Belichick can attack this offense with a double of Diggs, and the COVID situation and I think the Pats are a great value here. 

The Pick: Patriots 24, Bills 14
Bets: Pats -2.5

Rams at Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

I’m not sure why this total is under 50. Maybe it’s the Seahawks-Rams snoozer from Tuesday coupled with a super short week for the Rams causing it. Playing Tuesday and then playing Sunday is a pretty insane ask. Minnesota played Monday night on the road, so it’s not like things have been easy for them either. But their 7-7 record after sneaking past the Bears gives them a spot in the playoffs, so they should be pretty desperate. I’m not sure what they want do matches up well with the Rams though — L.A. is top shelf against the run and Minnesota wants to feed Dalvin Cook. The Vikings will raise the ceiling of teams they play and this game could end up featuring some scoring.

The Pick: Rams 37, Vikings 34
Bets: Over

Broncos at Raiders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Technically still an important game because the loser is toast in the playoff race. And we get to bet against Drew Lock? Derek Carr has fallen off but given the circumstances, his performance is still really impressive. This should be a low-scoring matchup but I lean Raiders with the Lock situation creating havoc.

The Pick: Raiders 24, Broncos 21
Bets: Raiders -1

Steelers at Chiefs

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Massive game for the AFC with a wild card situation involving all the COVID problems in Kansas City. It’s tough to handicap this game without knowing whether or not Travis Kelce will be playing and that’s not actually available, but I’m probably going to like the Steelers getting a touchdown or more.  

The Pick: Chiefs 24, Steelers 17
Bets: TBD

WFT at Dallas

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Brutal game for WFT on Tuesday — a second consecutive loss after climbing the standings. The defense is falling back to earth and they had way too many COVID issues to consider stopping the Eagles run game. That’s concerning with Dallas coming to town. The Cowboys offense hasn’t played well at all lately but maybe this is a get right spot? Either way we should see Washington struggle to produce points against a Cowboys defense that might earn Dan Quinn another head coaching job.

The Pick: Cowboys 24, WFT 10
Bets: Cowboys/under

Dolphins at Saints

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Super weird matchup on a Monday night but shockingly important after the Dolphins held off the Jets to keep surging towards the playoffs and the Saints blanked the Bucs to get right back in the mix. I’m backing Sean Payton here in a game where he simply out-coaches Brian Flores, thanks to Dennis Allen cooking up a game plan to wreck Tua’s day. That home holiday energy in New Orleans plus Alvin Kamara in prime time will be enough to give the Saints a massive win.

The Pick: Saints 24, Dolphins 14
Bets: Saints -3

Other Scores/Picks:

Jets 15, Jaguars 14
Chargers 17, Texans 10
Buccaneers 27, Panthers 14
Eagles 27, Giants 6
Seahawks 17, Bears 14