NFL divisional round odds: Tom Brady, Buccaneers open as slight favorites against rolling Rams

Super Wild Card Weekend had a little bit of everything. We saw the Cincinnati Bengals snap a 31-year drought, the Buffalo Bills destroy a divisional rival in the New England Patriots and the San Francisco 49ers score the lone upset with a win over the Dallas Cowboys. We also saw a few blowouts. This year wasn’t good evidence as to why expanding the playoffs is a good idea, as both No. 7 seeds lost by at least 16 points. 

It’s onward and upward for those left standing, and the No. 1 seeds enter the action this round. Below, we will break down the divisional round odds and list what each matchup reopened at on Monday morning, and the latest odds for Rams-Buccaneers after L.A. took care of the Cardinals on Monday night. 

All lines come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Divisional round odds

AFC

(4) Cincinnati Bengals at (1) Tennessee Titans

When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Opening line: Titans -3.5, O/U 47

The drought is over! The Bengals won their first playoff game since the 1990 season, as they held off the Las Vegas Raiders 26-19 on Saturday. It came down to the very end, but the Bengals proved they were the more talented squad. Joe Burrow kept the offense moving all game and Ja’Marr Chase had 116 receiving yards on nine catches. The Bengals are 0-7 all time in road playoff games, but Burrow is 4-0 straight up and against the spread over his past four starts.

For the Titans, this weekend is about the return of the king. Derrick Henry is expected to return to the starting lineup after missing half the year with a foot injury. He rushed for 937 yards and 10 touchdowns in just eight games played! It remains to be seen if Henry will be able to hit the ground running, but this Titans team is the No. 1 seed in the AFC for a reason. It is efficient running the ball no matter who is lining up in the backfield, and Ryan Tannehill can hurt you through the air with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. 

NFC

(6) San Francisco 49ers at (1) Green Bay Packers

When: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Opening line: Packers -5.5, O/U 47.5

The Packers and 49ers squared off in Week 3, when Mason Crosby hit a 51-yard field goal to win the game as time expired. Green Bay led 17-0, but San Francisco rallied to take a 28-27 lead with less than a minute left. These two teams have recent postseason history as well, as the 49ers defeated the Packers by 17 points to advance to Super Bowl LIV a few years ago. In fact, Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 in his playoff career vs. the 49ers!

While the Packers have been the best team in football this season and Rodgers will likely win his second straight MVP, this line could be bet down. The 49ers are 8-2 straight up and against the spread in the past 10 games. They started 3-5 straight up, and 2-6 against the spread. The Packers are the Super Bowl favorites for good reason, but could this be another close game? 

AFC

(3) Buffalo Bills at (2) Kansas City Chiefs

When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Opening line: Chiefs -2, O/U 55

This may be the most highly anticipated matchup of the divisional round. These two teams met in Week 5, and the Bills blew out the Chiefs on their home field by 18 points. The Chiefs fell to 2-3, and people really began to question if they could contend for a Super Bowl. Well, they were able to rebound to win 10 out of their last 12, and again look like one of the best teams in the NFL. 

Buffalo and Kansas City also met in the AFC Championship Game last year, as the Chiefs won by 14 points despite trailing by nine points early in the first half. Patrick Mahomes is 2-1 in his career vs. Josh Allen, and both have throw seven touchdowns as opposed to two interceptions in their head-to-head meetings. 

This game has the potential to be one of the most fun shootouts in NFL postseason history. The Chiefs and Bills were the highest-scoring teams from Super Wild Card weekend, as the Bills dropped 47 on the Patriots, and the Chiefs scored 42 against the Pittsburgh Steelers. It will be interesting to see how the number moves, but here’s something to keep in mind: The Chiefs are 5-0 against the spread in their past five homes games.

(4) Rams at (2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When: Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Opening line: Buccaneers -3, O/U 48.5

L.A. and Tampa Bay squared off back in Week 3 at SoFi Stadium and the Rams were able to pull out the 34-24 win. Both quarterbacks played well in that game with Matthew Stafford throwing four touchdowns, while Tom Brady passed for 432 yards. With this matchup now taking place at Raymond James Stadium, however, that trends favorably towards a different outcome than their regular season duel. Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. For those looking at the Rams, they have played well when considered an underdog, going 2-0 ATS in that setting this season with a margin of victory of 8.5 points.