Mavericks vs. Thunder odds, score prediction, time: 2024 NBA Cup picks, quarterfinal bets by proven model

The fourth-seeded Dallas Mavericks battle the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in a 2024 NBA Cup Western Conference quarterfinal matchup on Tuesday night. Dallas went 3-1 to finish second in Group C, while OKC was 3-1 to win Group B. The Mavericks (16-8), who are tied for second with Houston in the Southwest Division, are 8-5 on the road. The Thunder (18-5), first in the Northwest Division, are 9-2 on their home floor. PJ Washington and Naji Marshall are both listed as questionable for Dallas due to illness. Dallas eliminated OKC in last year’s playoffs, 4-2, and won the lone matchup earlier this season.

Tipoff from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. The Thunder lead the all-time regular-season series 90-85, but Dallas defeated Oklahoma City 121-119 on Nov. 17. The Thunder are 4-point favorites in the latest Thunder vs. Mavericks odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 230. OKC is at -184 (risk $184 to win $100) on the money line, while the Mavs are at +152. Before making any Mavericks vs. Thunder picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 8 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 121-83 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen huge returns. 

The model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Thunder and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Mavs:

• Mavericks vs. Thunder spread: Oklahoma City -4
• Mavericks vs. Thunder over/under: 230 points   
• Mavericks vs. Thunder money line: Oklahoma City -184, Dallas +152
• DAL: The Mavericks have covered the spread in 50 of their last 79 games (+20.30 units)      
• OKC: The Thunder have hit the money line in 38 of their last 46 home games (+22.50 units)  
• Mavericks vs. Thunder picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Mavericks vs. Thunder streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Thunder can cover

Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off back-to-back 30-point performances. He scored 31 points and dished out four assists in a 119-109 win over New Orleans on Saturday. He scored 30 points and added five assists, four rebounds, two blocks and two steals in a 129-92 win at Toronto on Thursday. In their Nov. 17 meeting with Dallas, he poured in 36 points and added eight assists. In 23 starts this season, he is averaging 29.8 points, 6.3 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 1.7 steals and one block in 34.2 minutes.

Also helping power the Thunder’s offense is forward Jalen Williams. In 23 games, all starts, he is averaging 22 points, 6.1 rebounds, five assists and 2.1 steals in 31.8 minutes. The former first-round pick from the 2022 NBA Draft is coming off a 27-point, six-rebound, five-assist and four-steal effort in the win at New Orleans on Saturday. He has had two double-doubles, including a 27-point and 10-rebound effort in a 110-104 loss at San Antonio on Nov. 19. See which team to pick here.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Point guard Luka Doncic is coming off back-to-back triple-doubles. He scored 30 points, grabbed 13 rebounds and dished out 11 assists as well as adding four steals in a 125-118 win at Toronto on Saturday. He had 21 points and added 10 rebounds and 10 assists in a 137-101 win at Washington on Thursday. In 18 games, all starts, he is averaging 28.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 8.1 assists and 1.9 steals in 36.7 minutes.

Also helping power Dallas is veteran point guard Kyrie Irving. In 22 starts, he is averaging 24.3 points, 5.2 assists, 4.9 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 35.1 minutes. He is connecting on 50.4% of his field goals, including 47% from 3-point range, and 88.5% from the free throw line. He poured in 29 points, grabbed six rebounds and four assists in 39 minutes. In the win over Oklahoma City earlier this season, he scored 23 points and added six assists. See which team to pick here.

How to make Mavericks vs. Thunder picks

The model has simulated Mavericks vs. Thunder 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 232 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavs vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread cashes in nearly 70% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Thunder vs. Mavs spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 121-83 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.