Harris seen as debate winner while maintaining slight lead over Trump: POLL

Americans broadly pick Kamala Harris as the winner of last week’s widely watched presidential debate – yet neither she nor Donald Trump moved the needle in terms of trust on the issues, ratings of the candidates’ personal attributes or vote preferences in the 2024 election.

Even Taylor Swift shows little impact: Just 6% in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll say the pop star singer-songwriter’s endorsement of Harris makes them more likely to vote for her; 13%, instead, say it makes them less likely to support her, with 81% saying it makes no difference. Those responding negatively are overwhelmingly Trump supporters, according to the poll.

Americans by 58-36% say Harris won the debate – a reversal from the Biden-Trump match in June, which Trump was seen as winning by 66-28%. Biden’s performance intensified questions about his cognitive health, precipitating his departure from the race.

The poll of 3,276 adults, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates with fieldwork by Ipsos, finds that Harris did firm up some of her personal appeal: Thirty-seven percent say the debate made them feel more favorably toward her, vs. 23% less favorably. There was no such benefit for Trump: People by nearly 2-1 say the debate made them see him less favorably.

The benefit for Harris occurred almost exclusively in her base, potentially helping her turnout efforts. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents say the debate made them see her more favorably. Only half as many Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents, 34%, say the debate made them see Trump more favorably. One factor may be that Harris, a walk-on candidate, has had less public exposure until now.

The poll also finds a slight dip in the share of Trump supporters who back him strongly – 56%, vs. 60% at the end of August. Sixty-two percent of Harris’ supporters now are strongly behind her, the first meaningful difference in strong support between the two.

That said, Trump shows an advantage in another gauge: while 42% call him too conservative, 47% call Harris too liberal, one of his debate themes.

Preferences

Vote preferences haven’t moved meaningfully. This poll finds the race at 51-46%, Harris-Trump, among all adults; 51-47% among registered voters; and 52-46% among likely voters. Each is within a percentage point of its pre-debate level in ABC/Ipsos polling.

Results are essentially identical when including third-party or Independent candidates Chase Oliver, Jill Stein and Cornel West; they get at most 1% support apiece. State-to-state ballot access for these candidates is a work in progress; ABC News estimates that as of now Oliver likely is on the ballot in about 36 states, Stein in about 27 and West in about 15.

It’s important to note that this poll measures preferences nationally, an effort to better understand how all Americans are coming to their choices in the presidential election. It doesn’t assess the contest at the state level, which determines the winner of the Electoral College.

The absence of movement in vote preferences, despite a 22-point tilt to Harris as having won the debate, marks the sharply polarized nature of the electorate. Almost everyone has a preference between Harris or Trump, and among those who do, few say they’d even consider the other. This is especially true among likely voters, with just 3% potentially persuadable to switch.

Another result also shows the entrenched divisions in attitudes. Seventy-three percent of Trump’s supporters say they’ve backed him all year. Of the rest, 17% were undecided at some point but settled on Trump; just 9% moved to Trump from another candidate – mostly, other Republicans or the former Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Barely 2% of Trump’s supporters came to him after previously preferring Harris or Biden.

It’s similar on Harris’ side of the ledger. Two-thirds of her supporters say they’ve been with her since she got into the race. A quarter were undecided at some point. Just 2% of Harris supporters have moved to her from Trump.

Movable voters can matter – as everyone matters – in a tight race. But these results suggest that the biggest pickings for Trump and Harris alike are in motivating turnout among their existing support groups.

Groups

Harris leads Trump by nine points among women while running virtually even with him among men, and by a slight nine points among 18- to 29-year-olds, entirely due to her support from women that age. She improves among young adults who are more likely to vote.

While younger women are important to Harris, the Swift endorsement doesn’t show a positive impact even in this group. Eight percent of women younger than 30 say the endorsement makes them more likely to support Harris, while 13% say it makes them less likely to do so. Most, 78%, say it makes no difference.

Her position among suburban women, an often-watched group, is similar to her support among women overall. More tellingly, she’s +12 points among independents, often a swing voter group in presidential elections.

Trump, for his part, leads by a vast 79-18% among white evangelical Protestants, with this core GOP group seemingly unfazed by his layered position on abortion. He’s roughly on par with past performance, having won white evangelical Protestants by 74-25% in 2020 and 81-16% in 2016.

In other groups, Trump leads by 12 points among white people, growing to 28 points among those who don’t have a four-year college degree, a mainstay of his support. Despite suggestions that he’s denigrated the military, he leads by 29 points among veterans, 63-34%.

Voters

Many of these results – but not all – hold steady when moving from the general public (relevant because there’s still time to register) to registered voters and then to likely voters. But there are a few notable exceptions.

Harris advances from +9 points among all adults aged 18-29 to +19 points among those identified as likely voters. This is fueled by young women, a cornerstone group in her campaign: Harris goes from +23 points among all women under 30 to +38 points among those likely to vote.

There’s a stark contrast with men aged 18-29 who are likely to vote: Just 51% in this group back Harris, with virtually as many, 48%, for Trump.

Trump, for his part, remains closer than usual to Harris among Hispanic people, now trailing her by 17 points among those who are likely voters. That’s better than usual for Trump compared with past elections: Biden won Hispanic people by 33 points in 2020; Hillary Clinton won them by 40 points in 2016, per ABC News exit polls.

Issues and attributes

While overall vote preferences are stable, so are views on issues and attributes. The economy and inflation continue to dominate as the top issues in the election, and Trump leads by 7 points in trust to handle each of them.

In the next most important issues, Harris responds with a 7-point lead on “protecting American democracy” and a 9-point lead on handling health care. The two remain evenly matched on crime and safety.

It’s clear, too, why Trump keeps doubling down on immigration as an issue: He leads Harris by 10 points in trust to handle it. She leads him by 14 points on abortion and by 16 points on handling race relations, although both rate lower in importance.

There are differences among groups in issue importance. In notable gender gaps, women are 14 points more apt than men to cite abortion as a top issue in their vote, 68% vs. 54% – a difference that holds regardless of age. Women also are 11 points more likely than men to cite health care as a top issue, 82 vs. 71%. Still, the economy and inflation top the issues list among women and men alike.

Harris’ best results vs. Trump continue to be on personal attributes, explaining her effort to lean in on this domain. She leads him by 32 points in having the physical health it takes to serve effectively, 17 points in honesty and trustworthiness, 10 points in mental sharpness, 10 points in understanding the problems of people like you and 7 points in better representing your personal values. All, again, are essentially the same as they were before the debate.

Overall favorability also is essentially unchanged: Forty-seven percent have a favorable impression of Harris, vs. 35% for Trump. Still, they’re close in being seen as qualified for office – Harris by 53%, Trump by 49%. The difference widens, however, among independents; 56% see Harris as qualified vs. 48% who say the same of Trump.

Debate

Lastly, on the debate, it’s notable that 95% of Democrats say Harris won, while fewer Republicans, 75%, say Trump won. (Among independents, 61% pick Harris.) Similarly, among Trump’s own supporters, 78% say he won the debate, while among people backing Harris, 97% give her the win. (These results include people who initially called the debate a tie, then leaned toward Harris or Trump as the winner.)

While 58% overall say Harris won, this rises to 64% of those who watched all or some of the debate. That reflects the fact that Harris supporters are 8 points more likely than Trump supporters to have watched. Harris supporters are even more apt to have read, watched or listened to follow-up news coverage or commentary about the debate – 75% have done so, vs. 59% of those who support Trump.

Methodology

This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel® Sept. 11-13, 2024, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 3,276 adults. Partisan divisions are 29-29-30%, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 2 percentage points, including the design effect, for the full sample. Sample sizes are 2,772 for registered voters and 2,196 for likely voters, with a 2-point error margin for each. Sampling error is not the only source of differences in polls.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Ipsos. See details on the ABC News survey methodology here.

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