Exit polls 2024: How the gender gap is playing out in key swing states

Written by ABC Audio ALL RIGHTS RESERVED on November 6, 2024

(WASHINGTON) — The gender gap is considered a crucial factor in the presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Both candidates tried to turn the gap to their advantage, with Harris making reproductive freedom a centerpiece of her campaign while Trump focused heavily on motivating men to turn out to the polls.

Men and women have long voted differently in presidential races, with the gender gap averaging 19 points in exit polls since 1996. But several pollsters told ABC News they were bracing for a “gender chasm” this year given the contrast of a man and a woman at the top of the ticket as well as the prominence of abortion rights as an issue after the fall of Roe v. Wade.

Preliminary results from exit poll data, which may change as polls are updated throughout election night, provide some insight on vote preferences among men and women.

Nationally, Harris has a 10-point advantage with women — 54% to Trump’s 44% — but her support is off a slim 3 points from President Joe Biden’s support with the group in 2020.

Trump, meanwhile, is leading by an identical 10-point margin among men.

There is also a huge gender gap between young men (who are roughly split between Harris and Trump 49%-47%) and young women who back Harris by 26 points.

ABC News has not projected a winner in these races.

Georgia

In Georgia, preliminary results show Harris with a 7-point advantage with women over Trump: 53% support to Trump’s 46%.

Compared to 2020 exit polls, Harris is running slightly behind Biden with women. Women went for Biden by 9 percentage points. Biden ultimately flipped the state blue for the first time in decades, eking out a narrow victory over Trump there by less than 12,000 votes.

Trump has a 12-point advantage with men in Georgia, preliminary results show: 55% to Harris’ 43%. That is the same gap he had there in the 2020 election against Biden.

Among younger voters, those ages 18 to 29, women are swinging for Harris by 29 points. Trump, meanwhile, only has a 2-point advantage among men in the same age group.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, preliminary results show women going for Harris by 13 points while men go for Trump by 15 points.

That is a much wider gender gap than the state saw in 2020, according to exit polls. Biden won women by 7 points there while Trump won men by 9 points.

Among younger voters, Harris has a 33-point lead with women while Trump has a 23-point lead with men.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania — a battleground that is considered to be a possible tipping point state — Harris has a 12-point lead among women: 55% compared to Trump’s 43%.

Trump’s lead with men is slightly higher: he has a 14-point among men: 56% compared to Harris’ 42%.

Again, preliminary exit poll results show a wider gender gap between Harris and Trump than between Biden and Trump. In 2020, women went for Biden by 11 points and men for Trump by 11 points.

Women ages 18 to 29 are swinging for Harris by a 40-point margin, while Trump is leading with men in that age range by 24 points.

Arizona

In Arizona, women are going for Harris by 3 points: 51% to Trump’s 48%.

Trump, meanwhile, boasts a bigger lead among men: 52% support from the group compared to Harris’ 45%.

That’s also a wider gender gap than in 2020, when Biden won women by 3 points and Trump men by 2 points.

Michigan

Harris boasts a 8-point advantage with women in the battleground state, according to preliminary results: 53% compared to Trump’s 45%.

Trump has a 11-point lead among men: 54% compared to Harris’ 43%.

Among younger voters ages 18 to 29, Harris has a 16-point lead with women while Trump has a 20-point lead with men, according to preliminary results.

Wisconsin

Harris is winning with women in Wisconsin by 11 points: 55% compared to Trump’s 44%. She is running slightly behind Biden’s 13-point advantage with women in 2020.

Trump has a 9-point lead with men: 54% compared to Harris’ 45%. Trump in 2020 won men by 10 points in the state.

Among younger voters ages 18 to 29, Harris has a 18-point lead with women while Trump has a 5-point lead with men, according to preliminary results.

Nevada

In Nevada, Harris is winning women 53% to Trump’s 43% — a 10-point gap.

Trump is winning men by a slightly larger margin, according to preliminary results: 55% to 41%.