Emanuel Navarrete vs. Oscar Valdez 2 fight prediction, odds, start time, preview, where to watch, picks, date

As far as world title bouts between Mexican-born warriors are concerned, the expectation is always that of two-way carnage, intensity and perseverance. 

When three-division champion and WBO junior lightweight titleholder Emanuel Navarrete faced off against former two-division king Oscar Valdez in August 2023, the pair of all-action fighters provided fans with just that as Navarrete (38-2-1, 31 KOs) overcame a badly damaged right hand to outslug Valdez (32-2, 24 KOs), who fought courageously despite a right eye that was swollen shut. 

All was well, in the end, for Navarrete on that night in Glendale, Arizona, when he took home judges’ scores of 119-109, 118-110 and 116-112 in a unanimous decision. The last two fights, however, have not gone as smoothly for the 29-year-old gunslinger as he settled for a majority draw against Robson Conceicao (despite dropping him twice) last November before losing a vacant WBO lightweight title bout to unbeaten Denys Berinchyk by split decision. 

On Saturday, Navarrete will return to 130 pounds as he seeks the third defense of his title in a second fight against Valdez that will headline a Top Rank doubleheader of title rematches inside the Footprint Center in Phoenix. In the co-main event, Rafael Espinoza (25-0, 21 KOs) defends his WBO featherweight title against former beltholder Robeisy Ramirez (14-2, 9 KOs) following their thrilling affair last December.

“We all know that we both plan to come out and give a war and leave everything in the ring again,” Navarrete said at Wednesday’s final press conference. “And what better way to do it than by having a co-main event that’s gonna eat things up?”

Valdez, 33, bounced back from the Navarrete loss by knocking out Liam Wilson (whom Navarrete stopped in 2023) to claim the WBO interim title and secure this weekend’s rematch. Although Valdez has lost just twice in 12 years as a professional, both fights came in the last two years, which is why he put so much importance into showing the world against Wilson that he isn’t close to being done yet.

“The [Wilson fight] was very important for me because boxing penalizes you if you have a lot of losses,” Valdez said. “It’s not like other sports where you can lose and you can do better in the next season. In boxing, most people don’t want to see you again after a couple of losses. So, doing that fight was very important for me. That’s why there was so much emotion for me after that fight. And that fight got me the ticket for this rematch.”

In an odd twist, it’s actually Navarrete, the defending champion, who enters this rematch fresh off of the razor-thin defeat to Berinchyk, which only adds to the motivation that he enters with to win. 

Like Valdez, Navarrete has lost just twice in 41 fights. But unlike his opponent this weekend, Navarrete’s first defeat came in just his first year as a pro in 2012 and he isn’t looking to add another anytime soon.  

“I’m focused 100 percent on [Valdez],” Navarrete said. “I haven’t thought about anything beyond Valdez. And now he’s coming with a different strategy. The first fight helped us learn about each other. And now we will use the tools that we extracted from the first fight. And, aside from using our experience with each other, we will also come with the same heart as last time. And so, I can’t say much, but no doubt it will be not just a fight but an epic event, especially with the co-main before us.”

Valdez, who trains alongside Canelo Alvarez under head coach Eddy Reynoso, can also equal Navarrete with a victory by becoming a three-division champion. 

“I visualized this. I feel I can do a lot more in the sport,” Valdez said. “After I lost, I went back home and was obviously sad and disappointed in my performance. But then you go back to the gym, and you start to work out. Then, you start to see that you can do better. 

“This is not an easy fight. This is a hard task. But nothing in life that is worth it is going to be easy. It’s always going to be hard. So, we trained hard. I’m excited for this. I’m excited to face the great ‘Vaquero’ once again. It’s going to be a great fight.”

Meanwhile, Espinoza and Ramirez are ready to run back their epic clash from a year ago where Espinoza claimed the WBO featherweight title. Espinoza earned the win by majority decision after both men touched the canvas in the 12-round bout. Now, Espinoza enters the rematch with tons of confidence.

“God’s timing is perfect. We waited a bit for the rematch, but now we are here,” Espinoza said at the final press conference. “And like I’ve said since the first fight, I’ve always wanted a rematch. because it was a war where we both gave everything. So, he deserved it, I deserved it, and the people deserved it.
 
“Knowing you are a champion affects you mentally. As a champion, you know that you have a big commitment, and so I’ve become a better person and a better fighter as a result, and I’m enjoying it.”

Let’s take a closer look at the odds for both title showdowns on Saturday night before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.

Fight card, odds

• Emanuel Navarrete (c) -250 vs. Oscar Valdez +205, WBO junior lightweight title
• Rafael Espinoza (c) -125 vs. Robeisy Ramirez -105,  WBO featherweight title

Where to watch Navarrete vs. Valdez

• Date: Dec. 7 | Start time: 10:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Footprint Center — Phoenix 
• TV/channel: ESPN/ESPN+

Prediction

One doesn’t need to be an expert to predict that this fight, like their first meeting, has all of the potential to end up as a legitimate fight of the year candidate. But for Valdez, the true question surrounds what he might be able to do differently in order to change the result of their first fight. 

Overcoming the six-inch reach advantage of Navarrete is never an easy task as the awkward and prolific “Vaquero” typically holds key size advantages over his opponents. Doing a better job of relying on his footwork to mix up his attack against Navarrete by alternating between boxing and brawling could be a key factor. 

Inevitably, however, the two will go to war and, once they do, the advantage likely shifts to Navarrete unless Valdez can establish himself consistently to the body and get inside of his opponent’s long reach. 

But Navarrete’s awkwardness makes him a constantly shifting puzzle that isn’t easy to solve. While the expectations for violence should be fulfilled, once again, on this night, it’s difficult to imagine the result changing much, save for Valdez finding a way to make it closer on the scorecards. 

Pick: Navarrete via MD12

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