Corner Picks: Best bets, odds, soccer predictions for Tottenham vs. West Ham, Roma vs. Lazio, and more

It’s the last weekend of action before the international break, and we don’t have nearly as much action in the Premier League as we’re used to seeing. Five Premier League matches that had originally been scheduled for this weekend have been postponed due to cup competitions and European competition, leaving us with only four Premier League matches for the week.

Thankfully, there’s still some excellent value to be found in two of those Premier League matches, and the Derby della Capitale between Roma and Lazio is screaming at us to bet one side. We’ll get to which one shortly, but first, let me remind you that all odds listed are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal

Date: Saturday, March 19 | Time: 8:30 a.m. ET | Watch: USA Network

There are four tiers in the Premier League. There’s Manchester City and Liverpool in their own up top, six other teams fighting for European spots, the five teams fighting for survival, and the midfield. Those tiers are clearly delineated by the standings, as Aston Villa is atop the midfield in ninth place but is 10 points behind Wolverhampton in the standings. Meanwhile, the gap between Villa in ninth and Brentford in 15th is only six points. That same division is evident in Aston Villa’s results in the Premier League this season. Look at how Villa have performed against the top eight compared to everybody else.

And to drive the point home further, all four of the points Villa have earned against the top eight came in two matches against Manchester United. They have lost the other nine matches, including once against this Arsenal team that is playing very well lately and have climbed into the Champions League places. Arsenal lost 2-0 to Liverpool earlier this week, but Arsenal played well. They weren’t outclassed; they were just beaten by one of the best teams in the world. It happens! Earlier this season, Arsenal dominated their first match against Aston Villa and while Villa has improved since, they will be without Lucas Digne for this match. Digne suffered a hamstring injury early in Villa’s loss to West Ham last week, and the team’s attack suffered greatly without the width he provides. This week, I don’t see Villa doing enough to overcome that against a better team. Pick: Arsenal (+140)

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Tottenham Hotspur vs. West Ham

Date: Sunday, March 20 | Time: 12:30 p.m. ET | Watch: USA

This is the time of the season when West Ham could start running into trouble. Thanks to their Europa League obligations, this will be the fourth match West Ham have played in 10 days. Unlike the top clubs that are used to European competition every season, West Ham doesn’t have the kind of depth that bodes well for playing so many minutes in a short amount of time. We saw Michail Antonio leave last week’s win over Aston Villa with a balky hamstring, and then he played 120 minutes against Sevilla Thursday night. I don’t know what condition he’ll be in for this match, and if he’s less than 100%, that’s a big blow for West Ham.

As for Tottenham, it’s dangerous to bet on them given how inconsistent their results have been, but the keyword there is results. While things haven’t gone their way consistently, they’ve played well for most of the last month, and only one of their last seven matches have come at home. That was a 5-0 win over Everton. I don’t think they’ll beat West Ham 5-0, but they will win far more often than not. Pick: Tottenham (-140)

Roma vs. Lazio

Date: Sunday, March 20 | Time: 1 p.m. ET | Watch: CBS Sports Network/Paramount+

While it’s not as drastic, Lazio are like the Aston Villa of Serie A. They’re much better than the teams below them in the standings and beat up on them but struggle when facing the best of the league. Also like Aston Villa, I made a handy table to illustrate the difference between Lazio facing the top seven and Lazio facing everybody else.

To illustrate it further, Lazio is a club that tends to go how Ciro Immobile goes. Immobile leads the league with 21 goals scored, but there’s a clear pattern to when his goals come.

And this is why Roma is such a terrific value. When it comes to rivalries like this, anything is possible, but Roma are playing well. They’ve lost only one of their last 12 matches and have held their last eight Serie A opponents under 1 expected goal per match. Pick: Roma (+160)

Weekend Parlay

A simple three-leg parlay this weekend that pays +107. Let’s hope Bayern doesn’t blow it for us two weeks in a row.

• Napoli (-215)
• Bayern (-600)
• Juventus (-475)