Chiefs vs. Steelers odds, prediction, time, line, spread: 2024 Christmas NFL picks by model on 28-12 run

The Kansas City Chiefs will try to win their sixth game in a row when they battle the Pittsburgh Steelers in a key AFC matchup on NFL Christmas Day 2024. Kansas City is coming off a 27-19 win over the Houston Texans, while Pittsburgh dropped a 34-17 decision at Baltimore later in the day. The Chiefs (14-1), who already have clinched their ninth AFC West championship, are 6-1 on the road this year. The Steelers (10-5), who are tied for the AFC North lead with the Ravens, are 5-1 on their home field. Defensive lineman Chris Jones (calf) is listed as questionable for Kansas City and, according to multiple reports, isn’t expected to play. 

Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh is set for 1 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Chiefs vs. Steelers odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 45. Before making any Chiefs vs. Steelers picks, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model, as well as everything else that SportsLine has to help you crush your NFL Christmas Day picks. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 28-12 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year – a stunning 70% success rate. Longer term, it is on a 208-140 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 62-33 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.

In addition to the model picks for this game, you can get AI props, Vegas expert picks, DFS Optimizer lineups, and everything else you need to crush your Christmas Day bets. Go to SportsLine now to see it all.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Steelers and just locked in its NFL picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and NFL betting lines for Chiefs vs. Steelers:

• Chiefs vs. Steelers spread: Chiefs -2.5
• Chiefs vs. Steelers over/under: 45.5 points
• Chiefs vs. Steelers money line: Chiefs -143, Steelers +120
• KC: Chiefs have won 9 of their last 11 road games (+8.90 units on ML)  
• PIT: Steelers are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games  
• Chiefs vs. Steelers picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Chiefs can cover

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes didn’t let an injured ankle stop him in Saturday’s win over the Texans. He not only completed 28 of 41 passes for 260 yards and one touchdown, but he also carried five times for 33 yards and a score. For the season, he has completed 66.9% of his passes for 3,608 yards and 23 touchdowns with 11 interceptions for a 91.2 rating. He has also carried 57 times for 295 yards (5.2 average) and two touchdowns.

Running back Kareem Hunt powers the Kansas City ground attack. In 12 games, he has carried 191 times for 708 yards (3.7 average) and six touchdowns. He has had one explosive play of 20 yards and has converted 39 first downs. He has 23 receptions for 176 yards (7.7 average). Hunt has surpassed 100 yards rushing in two games this season, including a 27-carry, 106-yard and one-touchdown performance in a 30-24 overtime win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Nov. 4. See which side to pick here.

Why the Steelers can cover

Quarterback Russell Wilson continues to lead the Pittsburgh offense. In nine games, he has completed 174 of 268 passes (64.9%) for 2,129 yards and 15 touchdowns with just four interceptions and a rating of 101.7. He has also rushed 33 times for 84 yards and a score. In a 44-38 win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Dec. 1, he completed 29 of 38 passes (76.3%) for 414 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.

Veteran running back Najee Harris leads the Steelers in rushing. In 15 games, he has carried 238 times for 933 yards (3.9 average) and five touchdowns. He has eight explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 36, with 43 first-down conversions. Harris has also been effective in the passing game with 30 receptions for 256 yards (8.5 average) and four explosive plays, including a 32-yarder. He has rushed for 100 or more yards three times, including 114 yards on 19 carries against the New York Giants in a 26-18 win on Oct. 28. See which side to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. Steelers picks