Bucks vs. Celtics game prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 4 bets from model on 86-58 run

The Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics square off in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals on Monday evening as the 2022 NBA playoffs roll on. Milwaukee leads the series by a 2-1 margin, with the opportunity to take a commanding edge with another home win. Boston enters with a sense of urgency as a result, aiming to make up for a close-fought Game 3 loss on Saturday. Khris Middleton (knee) is out for the Bucks, with Sam Hauser (shoulder) ruled out for the Celtics.

Tipoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as the one-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 212 in the latest Bucks vs. Celtics odds. Before making any Celtics vs. Bucks picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the third full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Celtics, and just locked in its NBA playoff picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Celtics vs. Bucks:

• Celtics vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -1
• Celtics vs. Bucks over-under: 212 points
• Celtics vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -115, Celtics -105
• BOS: The Celtics are 5-2 against the spread in playoff games
• MIL: The Bucks are 4-4 against the spread in playoff games

Why the Celtics can cover

The Celtics have notable strengths on both ends of the floor, including the league’s best defense. Boston led the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season, giving up only 1.06 points per possession and holding opponents to 43.4 percent shooting. The Celtics led the league in 3-point defense, 2-point defense and assists allowed per game, with top-five marks in blocked shots and points allowed in the paint. 

In the NBA playoffs 2022, Boston is holding opponents to only 21.0 assists per game, while forcing 14.9 turnovers per game, and the Bucks are averaging only 19.3 assists per game against the Celtics. Boston is also allowing only 27.9 percent from 3-point range to Milwaukee, and the Celtics are having offensive success as well. The Celtics are averaging 25.0 assists per game in the playoffs and also securing nearly 30 percent of missed shots on the offensive glass. Boston is also making great use of the free throw line, making 81.9 percent of 22.9 free throw attempts per contest.

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee has arguably the best player in the NBA in Giannis Antetokounmpo, and he is a constant X-factor on the floor. After averaging 29.9 points, 11.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game as an MVP finalist, Antetokounmpo is generating 31.3 points, 11.3 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game in the series. He creates mismatches for the Celtics on a regular basis, and Boston is forced to revolve its defense around stopping Antetokounmpo. From there, Jrue Holiday is averaging 23.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game against Boston, and Milwaukee finished the 2021-22 regular season with a top-five mark in 3-point shooting (36.6 percent) and overall offensive efficiency (114.3 points per 100 possessions. 

The Bucks are also elite on the defensive end, posting off-the-charts numbers in the playoffs and against the Celtics. Milwaukee has the best defensive efficiency in the 2022 NBA playoffs, allowing opponents to score less than a point per possession. The Bucks are also securing nearly 80 percent of available defensive rebounds, and opponents are shooting less than 40 percent from the floor against Milwaukee in the postseason.

How to make Bucks vs. Celtics picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 219 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Celtics vs. Bucks pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bucks vs. Celtics spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.