Broncos vs. Chiefs odds, line, spread: Sunday Night Football picks, predictions from NFL model on 131-94 run

The AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) will host the Denver Broncos (6-5) in a primetime showdown on Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs have found their groove over the past month, winning four straight games prior to their bye week. Denver is eyeing its second straight divisional win after defeating the Los Angeles Chargers last week.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is favored by 8.5 points in the latest Broncos vs. Chiefs odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under is 46.5. Before locking in any Chiefs vs. Broncos picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,100 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on an incredible 131-94 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has simulated Broncos vs. Chiefs 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and SNF predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NFL odds and Sunday Night Football betting lines for Broncos vs. Chiefs:

• Broncos vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -8.5 
• Broncos vs. Chiefs over-under: 46.5 points 
• Broncos vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -400, Denver +310 
• KC: Under is 5-1 in Chiefs’ last six games as favorites 
• DEN: Broncos are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games in Week 13

Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Why the Chiefs can cover

Since joining Kansas City in 2016, Tyreek Hill has developed into a legitimate No. 1 receiver. The West Alabama product has three seasons with more than 1,000 receiving yards and 14 yards per reception. Hill has been dominant during the 2021 campaign and ranks in the top five for multiple categories.

He is second in receptions (84), fifth in receiving yards (932), and tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (8). Hill has finished with more than 100 receiving yards in two games thus far, including against the Cleveland Browns when Hill had 11 catches for 197 yards with one touchdown. The three-time first-team All-Pro receiver has seen at least 10 targets in eight of the 11 games played. Hill also averages a team-high 84.7 receiving yards per game.

Why the Broncos can cover

Denver has one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Broncos are ranked ninth in total defense (330.8) and third in points per game (17.8). This group has allowed fewer than 20 points in seven games this season. Safety Justin Simmons is second on the team with 56 total tackles. The Boston College product is sixth in the NFL in pass deflections (11) and seventh in interceptions (four). 

Rookie cornerback Patrick Surtain II has played lights-out football. Surtain II is fourth on the squad in tackles with 37 and second on the team with three interceptions. Last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, Surtain II finished with five total tackles, two interceptions, and two pass deflections. The sticky-handed cornerback picked off Justin Herbert and returned it 70 yards for a touchdown.

How to make Broncos vs. Chiefs picks 

SportsLine’s model is leaning over the total, projecting the teams to combine for 48 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Broncos vs. Chiefs picks at SportsLine. 

So who wins Chiefs vs. Broncos on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Broncos spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,100 on its NFL picks, and find out.

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