Ballon d’Or nominee tiers, ranked: USWNT’s Trinity Rodman, Real Madrid Jude Bellingham among top contenders

France Football unveiled the list of nominees for the 2024 Ballon d’Or on Wednesday, ushering in a new and exciting era in both the men’s and women’s games. Both lists of nominees celebrated young stars who collected some of the sport’s top accolades, including first-time UEFA Champions League winner Jude Bellingham and two-time Premier League champion Erling Haaland, as well as the U.S. women’s national team Olympic gold medalists Trinity Rodman, Mallory Swanson and Sophia Smith. The individual honor, as usual, rewarded those who won other top international prizes like the UEFA Women’s Champions League, as well as the men’s European Championship and Copa America.

Thirty players each were nominated for the men’s and women’s awards, and the winner will be announced at a ceremony in Paris on Oct. 28.

Here’s a look at the contenders for each award and ranking them by tiers:

Men’s Ballon d’Or nominees

Happy to be here

• Hakan Calhanoglou (Inter and Turkiye)
• Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid and Spain)
• Ruben Dias (Manchester City and Portugal)
• Artem Dovbyk (Girona/Roma and Ukraine)
• Alejandro Grimaldo (Bayer Leverkusen and Spain)
• Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund/Roma and Germany)
• Ademola Lookman (Atalanta and Nigeria)
• Martin Odegaard (Arsenal and Norway)
• Antonio Rudiger (Real Madrid and Germany)
• William Saliba (Arsenal and France)
• Nico Williams (Athletic Bilbao and Spain)

Each of these players had a memorable year and are being rewarded for it, something that’s especially true for the likes of UEFA Europa League champion Ademola Lookman and UEFA Champions League finalist Mats Hummels. The nomination is essentially the win for this group, though a few of them could rise up the ranks in future years, depending in particular on their accolades for either club or country.

Long shots

• Lautaro Martinez (Inter and Argentina)
• Dani Olmo (RB Leipzig/Barcelona and Spain)
• Cole Palmer (Chelsea and England)
• Bukayo Saka (Arsenal and England)
• Federico Valverde (Real Madrid and Uruguay)
• Vitinha (Paris Saint-Germain and Portugal)
• Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen and Germany)
• Granit Xhaka (Bayer Leverkusen and Switzerland)

This group is a mix of people who picked up the necessary accolades to be in the running for the Ballon d’Or plus a few rising stars of the game like Bukayo Saka and Cole Palmer. The players in this section will probably nick some votes off the true contenders for the prize but might struggle to outrank a handful of other players. The lone exceptions here might be Argentina’s Lautaro Martinez and Spain’s Dani Olmo, who both impressed at the summer tournaments through their goalscoring exploits and their trophy haul.

Contenders

• Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid and England)
• Phil Foden (Manchester City and England)
• Erling Haaland (Manchester City and Norway)
• Harry Kane (Bayern Munich and England)
• Toni Kroos (Real Madrid and Germany)
• Emilian Martinez (Aston Villa and Argentina)
• Kylian Mbappe (Paris Saint-Germain/Real Madrid and France)
• Rodri (Manchester City and Spain)
• Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid and Brazil)
• Lamine Yamal (Barcelona and Spain)

This year’s Ballon d’Or officially marks the end of the era in which Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo traded the award since neither earned a nomination this time around. It means there’s an exciting new world order in the men’s game and plenty of uncertainty around who will actually win the coveted award. It could go to a nominee that is expected to be one of the era’s defining players like Bellingham, Haaland, Kylian Mbappe or Vinicius Junior, all of whom won major trophies in 2024. There’s also a crop of players who were unquestionably the best in the game this year, like Phil Foden, Harry Kane and Emiliano Martinez, while a retirement tribute to Toni Kroos could be in the cards and a recognition of teenager Lamine Yamal’s talents could come. The possibilities seem endless, and it feels like the first year of many in which that will be the case.

Women’s Ballon d’Or nominees

Happy to be here

• Tabitha Chawinga (Lyon and Malawi)
• Grace Geyoro (Paris Saint-Germain and France)
• Manuela Giugliano (Roma and Italy)
• Yui Hasegawa (Manchester City and Japan)
• Ada Hegerberg (Lyon and Norway)
• Lauren Hemp (Manchester City and England)
• Sjoeke Nusken (Chelsea and Germany)
• Ewa Pajor (Wolfsburg/Barcelona and Poland)
• Alexia Putellas (Barcelona and Spain)
• Glodís Viggosdottir (Bayern Munich and Iceland)

Just like the other sections of the shortlist, this group shines a spotlight on some of the game’s top talents, including two former Ballon d’Or winners in Ada Hegerberg and Alexia Putellas. An annual award like the Ballon d’Or, though, is an exercise in recency bias and while few would question the quality of these players, this year likely is not the year any of them will win the award. The only UEFA Women’s Champions League winner of the group is Putellas while none picked up the coveted Olympic gold medal. Two-team accolades will likely count heavily in the eventual winners’ favor in the voting process. It does not mean, though, that these players will not be in the conversation in future years — Grace Geyoro, Yui Hasegawa and Ewa Pajor’s stocks are very much on the rise, while Tabitha Chawinga broke out in her first season with Lyon, much like her sister Temwa, who is now with the NWSL’s Kansas City Current.

Long shots

• Mariona Caldentay (Barcelona and Spain)
• Patiricia Guijarro (Barcelona and Spain)
• Giulia Gwinn (Bayern Munich and Germany)
• Lindsey Horan (Lyon and United States)
• Marie-Antoinette Katato (Paris Saint-Germain and France)
• Alyssa Naeher (Chicago Red Stars and United States)
• Salma Parauello (Barcelona and Spain)
• Mayra Ramirez (Levante/Chelsea and Colombia)
• Lea Schuller (Bayern Munich and Germany)

This group of players had some highlight reel moments in 2024, generating enough buzz to match their talents and land among the dark horses for the Ballon d’Or. There’s a trio of Champions League winners, plus a pair of Olympic bronze medalists and a gold-medal winning duo — which includes the lone goalkeeper nominee, Alyssa Naeher — in this section. Mayra Ramirez, meanwhile, earns a spot here after Chelsea set Europe’s transfer record in women’s soccer this year to sign her from Levante and Marie-Antoinette Katoto was the leading goalscorer at the Olympics. This group will no doubt win some adoration from the voting body, but the nomination might be more of a complement to their other accomplishments in 2024 rather than an indication that they will win the whole thing.

Contenders

• Barbra Banda (Orlando Pride and Zambia)
• Aitana Bonmati (Barcelona and Spain)
• Lucy Bronze (Lyon/Chelsea and England)
• Carline Graham Hansen (Barcelona and Norway)
• Lauren James (Chelsea and England)
• Gabi Portilho (Corinthians and Brazil)
  
• Trinity Rodman (Washington Spirit and United States)
• Khadija Shaw (Manchester City and Jamaica)
• Sophia Smith (Portland Thorns and United States)
• Mallory Swanson (Chicago Red Stars and United States)
• Tarciane (Houston Dash and Brazil)

This group of players all had standout years in 2024, either doing so with a major accolade for club or country or enjoying a breakout season at the club level. The USWNT’s goalscoring attacking trio of Trinity Rodman, Sophia Smith and Mallory Swanson had to make the cut after winning gold in Paris, while Gabi Portillo and Tarciane could win votes after Brazil’s impressive silver medal finish at the Olympics. Last year’s winner Aitana Bonmati has barely missed a step since, while the likes of Lucy Bronze, Caroline Graham Hansne and Lauren James also make the cut after maintaining their standing as some of the best players in the game. As for Khadija “Bunny” Shaw, she had a banner year as the WSL’s Player of the Year and Barbra Banda has taken the NWSL by storm in her first season in Orlando. Each have a strong case, making this a very competitive contest.