Atletico vs. Real Madrid odds, prediction, pick: Where to watch La Liga live online, time, TV channel

The first Madrid derby of this season is this Sunday at Estadio Metropolitano in La Liga with Atletico Madrid playing host to bitter rivals Real. Diego Simeone’s men last won the Spanish title in 2020-21 and they were not expected to beat Barcelona or Los Blancos to this campaign’s crown but beating Carlo Ancelotti’s side here would certainly do some damage to Real’s title hopes. It has been 39 games since Los Merengues last lost in La Liga and they are within four games of Barca’s all-time record of 43 from 2017-18 but that will be tested where it all started just over one year ago.

Atleti have not been at their best so far this term but they are yet to lose which places them third in the table and within two points of Real. Los Colchoneros have the tightest defense in the league having only conceded three goals with five clean sheets from their last six La Liga outings. The home side have a tough task ahead of them but will recall that they were the last team to beat Real back in September of 2023 in a 3-1 triumph.

Ancelotti’s outfit went on to win La Liga and the UEFA Champions League and are favorites to repeat that with Kylian Mbappe added to their roster. However, the French superstar is injured and misses his Madrid derby debut as well as the next few weeks of action. Real have won 116 of their 236 games against Atleti across all competitions but Simeone’s team knows that they have the means to beat their fierce foes.

Here’s our storylines, how you can watch the match and more:

How to watch and odds

• Date: Sunday, September 29 | Time: 3 p.m. ET
• Location: Estadio Metropolitano – Madrid, Spain
• Watch: ESPN Deportes | Stream: Fubo (try for free)
• Odds: Atleti +180; Draw +240; Real +150

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Story so far

Atleti are third in La Liga with 15 points from a possible 21 which is two points less than Real who are second and four points behind leaders Barca. Simeone’s side drew with Rayo Vallecano last weekend but edged out Celta Vigo late on in midweek for four wins from five across all competitions. Ancelotti’s men have drawn twice already this season but are on a run of five consecutive wins which included an opening UEFA Champions League success over VfB Stuttgart. Espanyol and Alaves were also taken care on within the past week with Villarreal and Lille OSC to come before the October international period.

Team news

Atleti: Cesar Azpilicueta, Thomas Lemar and Pablo Barrios are out but expect to see changes with Julian Alvarez, Rodrigo De Paul and Samuel Lino expected to make the XI. Alexander Sorloth could drop out with Alvarez likely to join Antoine Griezmann while Conor Gallagher should get his first taste of the Madrid derby from the start.

Possible Atleti XI: Oblak; Le Normand, Gimenez, Reinildo; Llorente, De Paul, Koke, Gallagher, Lino; Alvarez, Griezmann.

Real: Mbappe is out here and is also expected to miss other games with around three weeks of recovery needed for the France international. Brahim Diaz, Dani Ceballos and David Alaba also miss out but Eduardo Camavinga should return along with Dani Carvajal who missed the Alaves win with a knock. Mbappe’s absence should see Ancelotti switch to a 4-3-1-2 system from last season which will allow Jude Bellingham to operate behind Vini Jr. and Rodrygo with Luka Modric also in line to start.

Possible Real XI: Courtois; Carvajal, Militao, Rudiger, Mendy; Valverde, Tchouameni, Modric; Bellingham; Rodrygo, Vinicius.

Prediction

This one is likely to be extremely tight with not much between the two sides. Each side scoring but no eventual winner sounds about right with Real’s attack impacted by Mbappe’s absence but Atleti’s strong defense also a key factor. A narrow one-goal win would not be unrealistic but a score draw remains the most probable outcome. Pick: Atleti 1, Real 1.