AC Milan’s Champions League campaign hasn’t gone to plan, but there’s hope for Christian Pulisic and company

The group of death in the Champions League hasn’t been kind to Milan as after a 3-0 loss to Paris Saint-Germain, they now sit bottom of Group F without a win in three matches. Despite that, advancement is in Milan’s hands due to how the group is shaping up. 

Only four points separate PSG in first from Milan in fourth but more importantly, Borussia Dortmund and Newcastle United are both on four points, two ahead of Milan. This makes the reverse fixture with PSG important, but facing Dortmund and Newcastle again will be critical.

Despite flying high in domestic play, Milan have yet to score a goal in Champions League and conceded their first goals of the tournament to PSG on Wednesday. Unfortunately, Stefano Pioli’s men didn’t stop at only conceding one goal as they allowed the Parisians to score three.

Group F standings

What’s gone wrong?

To say that Milan are underperforming based on their underlying numbers would be an understatement. Not only are they one of two teams who haven’t scored a Champions League goal alongside Benfica but by expected goals, they should have at least four goals via their xG of 4.27 (in comparison to an xG of 2.28 for Benfica). Expected goals may not be everything but in Milan’s Champions League opener alone versus Newcastle United, they took 25 shots for an xG of 1.99. It’s not for lack of trying that they haven’t scored but the ball just isn’t going in the back of the net.

Variance is always the name of the game in short competitions like this, but looking at the odds, Milan can turn this around quickly. Even a draw at home to PSG would be a great platform to put them in a place for contention. Taking a look at the performance of players like Christian Pulisic in Serie A, there is no reason to think that the group will keep Milan from scoring for much longer but the goals need to come now.

How to climb back

While PSG have been a strong side at home, traveling isn’t among their strong suits. Only winning two of their last five away matches in all competitions, it gives Milan a chance to pounce and turn the group upside down. Just one victory would pull them within one point of the Parisians so all hope isn’t even close to lost. Pioli does need to get the team ticking in Europe like they tick in Italy sooner than later but if they can do that, advancement is still in the cards.