Phillies vs. Marlins odds, prediction, line: 2022 MLB picks, Thursday, August 11 best bets from proven model

The Miami Marlins visit Citizens Bank Park on Thursday. The Marlins take on the Philadelphia Phillies in a matinee clash between NL East rivals. Thursday’s game is the finale of a three-game set between the division foes. Edward Cabrera is projected to start for Miami, with Kyle Gibson taking the ball for Philadelphia. 

First pitch is at 1:05 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. Caesars Sportsbook lists Philadelphia as a -170 favorite on the money line, while the Over-Under, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 8 in the latest Marlins vs. Phillies odds. Before you make any Marlins vs. Phillies picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it is 299-254 on top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the 2021 season, returning over $800 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen profitable returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Marlins vs. Phillies and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Marlins vs. Phillies:

• Marlins vs. Phillies money line: Phillies -170, Marlins +143 
• Marlins vs. Phillies over-under: 8 runs 
• Marlins vs. Phillies run line: Phillies -1.5 
• MIA: The Marlins are 21-23 in day games 
• PHI: The Phillies are 22-14 in day games 
• Marlins vs. Phillies picks: See picks here.

Why you should back the Marlins

Miami’s run prevention is its strength on Thursday. The Marlins have a bullpen with an ERA under 4.00 this season, and Miami’s relievers combine for more than a strikeout per inning in 2022. Philadelphia’s offense is filled with power, but the Phillies are below the NL average in doubles, walks, and on-base percentage. 

Miami starting pitcher Edward Cabrera is also enjoying success in 2022, and the 24-year-old right-hander has a 2.61 ERA this season. Cabrera maintains a 1.065 WHIP with 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings, and opponents are scuffling to the tune of a .544 OPS against him. In his last outing, Cabrera threw five shutout innings, and he is capable of slowing Philadelphia’s offense, even on the road.

Why you should back the Phillies

Philadelphia has the better offense in this matchup by a considerable margin. Miami ranks dead-last in the National League in walks, and the Marlins are in the bottom three of the league in several major categories, including runs scored, hits, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. In contrast, Philadelphia is in the top three of the NL in home runs and slugging percentage, with top-five marks in runs scored, batting average, OPS, and total bases. 

Two-time All-Star Kyle Schwarber has produced at a high level for Philadelphia, leading the NL in home runs and posting top-10 marks in walks and extra-base hits. From there, the Phillies also have a top-five bullpen in the National League, and starting pitcher Kyle Gibson owns a 2.87 ERA in his last five starts and a 2.89 ERA across three outings against the Marlins this season.

How to make Marlins vs. Phillies picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the run total, and it says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only see the model’s MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Marlins vs. Phillies? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of Marlins vs. Phillies you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.