76ers vs. Heat prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 3 best bets from model on 86-58 run

The Miami Heat visit Wells Fargo Center to face the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday. The Eastern Conference rivals match up in Game 3 of a second-round series in the 2022 NBA playoffs. Miami leads this series by a 2-0 margin, with two double-digit victories. Kyle Lowry (hamstring), Tyler Herro (ankle), Caleb Martin (ankle), Max Strus (hamstring), P.J. Tucker (calf), and Gabe Vincent (knee) are listed as questionable for the Heat. Joel Embiid (facial fracture) is listed as out for the Sixers.

Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as the three-point road favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 210 in the latest Heat vs. 76ers odds. Before making Heat vs. 76ers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the third full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Sixers vs. Heat, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Sixers:

• Heat vs. 76ers spread: Heat -3
• Heat vs. 76ers over-under: 210 points
• Heat vs. 76ers money line: Heat -145, 76ers +125
• MIA: The Heat are 5-2 against the spread in playoff games
• PHI: The 76ers are 4-4 against the spread in playoff games

Why the Heat can cover

Miami is operating at an extremely high level in the postseason, building off already impressive success from the regular season. The Heat are out-scoring their opponents by 13.2 points per 100 possessions through seven playoff games, dominating on both ends of the floor. On offense, Miami is producing 1.17 points per possession, shooting the ball at a high level and securing nearly 32 percent of missed shots on the offensive glass. The Heat are scoring 119.7 points per 100 possessions in two games against Philadelphia, and Miami ranked in the top six of the NBA in 3-point accuracy, 3-pointers per game, free throw accuracy and assist rate during the regular season. 

On defense, the Heat are also crushing the glass, holding opponents to a 23.8 percent offensive rebound rate, and Miami is allowing only 44 percent shooting and 34.1 percent from 3-point distance in the playoffs. The Heat are holding the opposition to 18.3 assists per game, and Miami was also excellent on defense during the regular season. That includes a league-best park in points allowed in the paint, as well as top-four rankings in defensive rating, 3-point defense, assist prevention and field goal percentage allowed.

Why the 76ers can cover

Philadelphia has clear strengths on offense, and the Sixers are playing well on that end of the floor in the playoffs. During the regular season, the 76ers ranked in the top four of the NBA in free throw creation, free throw accuracy, turnovers per game and live-ball turnovers per game. In the postseason, Philadelphia is scoring 115.4 points per 100 possessions, an elite figure, and the 76ers are even better at home, scoring more than 1.21 points per possession in playoff home games. The 76ers are shooting 47.6 percent from the floor and 36.2 percent from 3-point range in the playoffs, and the free throw line continues to be an area of strength. 

Philadelphia has elite marks in free throw creation (24.3 attempts per game) and free throw accuracy (85.6 percent) in the playoffs. On the other end, the 76ers are stingy in defending the 3-point line, allowing the opposition to make only 11.4 triples per game in the regular season. Miami also ranked No. 28 in the NBA in both turnovers per game and points in the paint per game in 2021-22, with Philadelphia landing above the NBA average in assists allowed and free throw attempts allowed.

How to make Heat vs. 76ers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 217 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Heat vs. 76ers picks at SportsLine.

So who wins 76ers vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.