Nuggets vs. Warriors prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 5 best bets from model on 86-58 run

The Golden State Warriors hold a 3-1 lead in their first-round series against the Denver Nuggets, but Nikola Jokic and company will be looking to build on the momentum from their Game 4 win to stay alive in the 2022 NBA playoffs. Game 5 will take place on Wednesday at the Chase Center in San Francisco. Jokic is coming off back-to-back 37-point games that have helped make Denver look much more competitive the last two contests. Can Jokic continue to dominate or will the Warriors end the series with a victory?

Tip-off is at 10 p.m. ET. Golden State is favored by 8.5-points in the latest Nuggets vs. Warriors odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 225.5. Before locking in any Warriors vs. Nuggets picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the second full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Warriors, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Warriors vs. Nuggets:

• Nuggets vs. Warriors spread: Golden State -8.5
• Nuggets vs. Warriors over-under: 225.5 points
• Nuggets vs. Warriors money line: Denver +330, Golden State -430
• DEN: The Nuggets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games
• GS: The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games

Why the Warriors can cover

Despite sputtering to an 11-12 record after the All-Star break and generally looking lost with Stephen Curry (foot) out of the lineup late in the regular season, the Warriors re-established themselves as one of the favorites to win the West with a couple of dominant victories to begin their first-round series against the Nuggets. Things got a little tighter in a Game 3 win but they still managed to cover the spread for the third game in a row and put Denver on ice.

In Game 4, it took an obscene shooting night from the Nuggets (56.2 percent from the floor and 48.4 percent from the 3-point line) for them to stay alive. Meanwhile, Golden State shot just 12-for-34 from the 3-point line and Jordan Poole ultimately had his worst offensive night of the series with 11 points on 3-for-10 shooting. If Poole can bounce back and the Nuggets cool off at all, the Warriors should have a solid chance to advance on Wednesday.

Why the Nuggets can cover

Center Nikola Jokic is an all-around stud for the Nuggets. Jokic is leading the team in points (31.2), rebounds (11.8) and assists (5.2). The four-time All-Star can dominate on the glass with a variety of moves to get a bucket. Jokic recorded three double-doubles thus far and had a monster performance in his last game. In the Game 4 win, he posted 37 points, eight rebounds and six assists. 

Forward Aaron Gordon is physically gifted with the explosiveness to fly to the rim. Gordon constantly hustles and plays with high energy on defense. The Arizona product has a reliable jumper from the perimeter and can knock it down if given space. He is logging 13.5 points and seven rebounds per contest. He’s scored 18-plus in back-to-back games, including 21 points, six rebounds and four assists in his last contest. 

How to make Nuggets vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 222 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Warriors vs. Nuggets picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Nuggets vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.