Heat vs. Hawks prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 3 best bets from model on 86-56 run

The Atlanta Hawks look to avoid a perilous deficit when they face the Miami Heat on Friday in the 2022 NBA playoffs. The Hawks trail the Heat 0-2 after two losses in Miami. Atlanta now hosts Game 3 on Friday at State Farm Arena, with the Heat seeking a win that would give them complete series control. Clint Capela (knee) is out for the Hawks. Bam Adebayo (quad), Caleb Martin (ankle), P.J. Tucker (calf), and Markieff Morris (hip) are listed as questionable for the Heat.

Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET in Atlanta. Caesars Sportsbook lists Atlanta as the 1.5-point road favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 221.5 in the latest Heat vs. Hawks odds. Before making any Hawks vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA playoff 2022 predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the first full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-56 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning almost $2,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Hawks, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Hawks vs. Heat:

• Heat vs. Hawks spread: Heat -1.5
• Heat vs. Hawks over-under: 221.5 points
• Heat vs. Hawks money line: Heat -115, Hawks -105
• MIA: The Heat are 8-1 against the spread in the last nine games
• ATL: The Hawks are 9-4 against the spread in the last 13 games

Why the Heat can cover

Miami is an elite defensive team, and that is evident from the first two games against Atlanta. The Heat finished the regular season with the No. 4 defensive rating in the NBA, allowing only 108.4 points per 100 possessions. Miami led the league in points allowed in the paint (41.3 per game), with top-five marks in 3-point defense (33.9 percent), field goal percentage allowed (44.7 percent), assists allowed (23.3 per game) and turnovers created (15.0 per game). Through two games against a top-tier offense, Miami is holding Atlanta to exactly one point per possession with as many turnovers as assists for the Hawks. 

The Heat are securing 76 percent of defensive rebounds and forcing a turnover on 18.9 percent of defensive possessions, including more than 10 steals per game. Miami’s switching scheme has been heavily effective and, on the other end, the Heat are shooting 43.2 percent from 3-point range and assisting on nearly 70 percent of field goals. The Heat also led the NBA in 3-point accuracy during the regular season, burying 37.9 percent of attempts over an 82-game sample.

Why the Hawks can cover

The Hawks struggled in Miami, but Atlanta has been a different team at home in recent days. Atlanta is 20-3 in the last 23 home games and, from Jan. 17 to the end of the regular season, the Hawks out-scored opponents by 8.7 points per 100 possessions in home games. Over the course of those 23 games, including a play-In win over Charlotte, Atlanta has scored 226 more points than its opponents at State Farm Arena. With the change in venue, the Hawks will perhaps be more comfortable on offense, and Atlanta finished No. 2 in the NBA in regular season offensive efficiency. 

Trae Young is the centerpiece of Atlanta’s attack, averaging 28.4 points and 9.7 assists per game in 2021-22, and Young became the first player in nearly five decades to lead the NBA in total points and total assists in the same season. The Hawks are also excellent at the free throw line, making 81.2 percent of attempts in the regular season and 82.9 percent of attempts in the series. On defense, Atlanta has struggled at times, but they’ve been able to stop Miami from generating second-chance opportunities with a stellar defensive rebound rate of 81.0 percent.

How to make Hawks vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 226 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.