NFL Week 10 early odds: Packers take ATS winning streak into matchup with Seattle; Jags still double-digit dog

Week 9 in the NFL certainly had its fair share of surprises for us. All throughout the Sunday slate, we saw a number of wild and unforeseen finishes. The headliner was certainly the Jaguars stunning the Bills at home, but Tennesse’s road win over the Rams without Derrick Henry and the Cardinals blowing out the 49ers without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins were also remarkable.

While we wait for the Bears and Steelers to put a bow on this crazy week with their matchup on “Monday Night Football,” now seems like as good of a time as ever to take a gander at what’s to come in Week 10. 

Week 10 early odds

(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook, all games on Sunday unless noted)

Opening line: Ravens -7

Both of these teams are coming off wins in Week 9, but the main storyline leading up to the Week 10 opener will be the status of Tua Tagovailoa. He did not start for the Dolphins in their win over the Texans due to a fracture in his middle finger in his throwing hand. Because of the quick turnaround, Tagovailoa’s status is also up in the air for this game. While this injury is a storyline worth following, it may not mean much for the line. Baltimore stands as a touchdown favorite to begin the week and has been strong playing on Thursday, going 4-1-1 against the spread in its last six games. Meanwhile, Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five Thursday games.  

Bills (5-3) at Jets (2-6)

Opening line: Bills -13

The shocker of Week 9 was the Bills falling to the Jaguars. After entering the game as a two-touchdown favorite, Buffalo was held to just six points and was shut out in the second half. Even in the aftermath of that defeat, the market hasn’t overreacted, especially with the Jets next up on the schedule. New York saw backup quarterback Mike White go down in a loss to Indy on Thursday, so it’ll be worth monitoring that situation as we get closer to kickoff. In Buffalo’s last four games following an ATS loss, the club has bounced back with a 3-0-1 ATS mark. Meanwhile, the Jets are 2-6 ATS this season with a -13.4 point differential. 

Buccaneers (6-2) at Washington (2-6) 

Opening line: Buccaneers -8

Tampa Bay and Washington both come into this game fresh off a Week 9 bye. While each club got the week off to rest, they are beginning their second half of the season on two different plateaus. At 6-2, the Bucs are looking to maintain their lead in the NFC South and contend for the top seed in the NFC. Meanwhile, Washington finds itself in last place in the NFC East after the defense has surprisingly fallen off a cliff, ranking 29th in the NFL in DVOA. This number could very well move up as the week progresses, but there should be some trepidation when betting with the Bucs. This season, Tampa Bay is 3-5 ATS. 

Opening line: Cowboys -9.5

The Cowboys’ perfect ATS record fell last week in Dallas’ blowout loss to the Denver Broncos. While that wasn’t the result Mike McCarthy was looking for in Week 9, the Cowboys still find themselves with a comfortable lead in the division and are nearly a double-digit favorite at home against Atlanta. There was some reaction to that loss as this spread did fall to Cowboys -8.5 for a time, but it has since bounced back to its opening mark. Meanwhile, the Falcons are heading into this Week 10 matchup after defeating the Saints for their third win in four weeks. One thing that may be worth pointing out in the aftermath of Dallas’ loss in Week 9 is that the team is 0-4 ATS in its previous four games following a double-digit loss at home. 

Saints (5-3) at Titans (7-2) 

Opening line: Titans -2.5

Tennessee defeating the Rams without Derrick Henry in the backfield was one of the bigger upsets on the Week 9 slate. The Titans are currently winners of five straight and have created a nice cushion for themselves in the AFC South. On top of a 7-2 record on the season, they are also 7-2 ATS, covering 77.8% of their games. New Orleans, meanwhile, is coming off a loss to the Falcons and is .500 against the spread this season. Even with these teams trending in two separate directions, Tennessee has only grown to a 3-point favorite since the spread opened at -2.5. That could be thanks to the Saints being 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up loss. 

Jaguars (2-6) at Colts (4-5) 

Opening line: Colts -10.5

Jacksonville pulled a rabbit out of its hat by not only covering against the Bills but winning outright despite being a two-touchdown underdog. While the Jaguars were able to pull off the upset, the market isn’t giving them a ton of credit as they are still a double-digit dog in Week 10 against the Colts. Indy put together an impressive win over the Jets on Thursday where it blew them out for nearly three quarters. New York nearly covered the spread in the fourth quarter, however, so there is a chance that the backdoor could be open against the defense on Sunday for Jacksonville even if it isn’t able to mount another upset. The Colts come into this game 5-1 ATS over their last six. 

Lions (0-8) at Steelers (4-3) 

Opening line: Steelers -9.5

The Lions come out of their bye still searching for their first win of the season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh will be playing the Bears on “Monday Night Football,” so there will at the very least be a rest advantage for Detroit heading into Week 10. Even as the Lions are winless, they haven’t always been a bad bet this season as they sit 4-4 ATS. That’s better than Pittsburgh’s 3-4 ATS mark heading into Monday night. This spread has come down a half-point since opening at Steelers 9.5, but there likely won’t be much movement until Pittsburgh’s game concludes. 

Opening line: Patriots -3

This is a big game for both clubs as they each sit at 5-4 on the season and are in the thick of the playoff picture in the AFC. The Patriots are winners of three straight coming into this home matchup and have outscored their opponents 115-43 over that stretch. In their first game since releasing Odell Beckham Jr., the Browns put up 41 points, which was spearheaded by Nick Chubb, who rushed for 137 yards and two touchdowns. While the Patriots have been the hotter team as of late, the Browns have been particularly good on the road. In their last six road games, they are 5-1 ATS. 

Opening line: Chargers -3

Minnesota is coming into this game after an overtime loss to the Ravens that brings it down to 3-5 on the season. Meanwhile, Los Angeles was able to bounce back and snap a two-game losing skid with a win over the Eagles. Both of these offenses have moved the ball with similar effectiveness as the Chargers are averaging 5.9 yards per play while the Vikings sit at 5.8. That said, Los Angeles is trending in a much more positive direction as it is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games going into Sunday. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 4-11 ATS in their last 15. With this falling to Chargers -2.5, it might be wise to look at those trends and lean on L.A. while this spread is under a field goal. 

Panthers (4-5) at Cardinals (8-1) 

Opening line: Cardinals -10

Carolina’s offense seems to be in shambles under Sam Darnold, who threw three second-half interceptions Sunday, Now, it gets a Cardinals team that was able to blow out the 49ers without its top two offensive players in Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. While it remains to be seen if those two will return this week, a 10-point spread certainly indicates that Arizona should have no problem against this club. This season, the Cardinals are 6-2 ATS, while the Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six.  

Eagles (3-6) at Broncos (5-4) 

Opening line: Broncos -2

Denver pulled off a road upset over the Cowboys on Sunday, blowing Dallas out 30-16 and limiting the offense to just 290 total yards. The Broncos now head back home and will face another NFC East opponent in the Eagles, who are looking to rebound following a loss to the Chargers. The quarterback play by Jalen Hurts is still a bit inconsistent, so this could be another opportunity for Denver to pull out a win and remain in the hunt in the AFC West. Over its last 11 road games, Philly is 3-8 ATS.

Opening line: Packers -5

Seattle looks like it will get Russell Wilson back for this game after the quarterback missed the last few weeks due to a fracture to the middle finger in his throwing hand. That’ll almost certainly impact this spread of Packers -5, especially with Aaron Rodgers‘ status still in question after he was placed on the reserve/COVID list. Green Bay rides into this matchup 8-0 ATS in its last eight contests, while Seattle is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. 

Opening line: Chiefs -3

Kansas City was able to fend off the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers to move above .500, but now has a massive AFC West contest with the Raiders on “Sunday Night Football.” Las Vegas is coming off a 23-16 loss to the New York Giants in Week 9 where Derek Carr was baited into two turnovers, including a pick-six. While this game will have major implications for the division race, taking the points with the Raiders may be the correct route to take. After all, Kansas City is 2-7 ATS this season, which is the second-worst mark in the NFL. Meanwhile, Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. 

Rams (7-2) at 49ers (3-5), Monday 

Opening line: Rams -3

Los Angeles and San Francisco are looking to get back into the win column after two shocking losses in Week 9. The Niners couldn’t defeat the Arizona Cardinals, who were without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, while the Rams fells to the Titans, who were playing without star running back Derrick Henry. Both of these teams have also been less than stellar against the spread this season with L.A. owning a 4-5 ATS record with the Niners sitting at 2-6 ATS. While the Rams were on the losing end of things on Sunday, they have historically been able to rebound, owning a 13-3-1 ATS record over their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home. As for the 49ers, they are 0-4 ATS at home in their last four. 

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