Can Pep Guardiola fix Manchester City? After another terrible performance, it’s getting harder to see how

BIRMINGHAM, England — Pep Guardiola has never been in a situation like this before. You can tell. In 16 years of top level management Guardiola has won more trophies than he could count, propelled great talent to peaks even they couldn’t imagine and set the template for modern coaching. And, as the man down the bar or in the comments section won’t cease to tell you, he has done it all at the helm of some of the richest clubs on the planet, where he need not want for anything.

No wonder he has never found himself in these circumstances, a points return since the start of November that put City neck and neck with Southampton. Villa Park bristled with expectation before kickoff. Perhaps the home faithful were drawing belief from the exhilarating triumph in the same fixture last year, but Villa haven’t been a team on those levels in recent weeks. More aptly, City haven’t even been at the standard of one of their worst performances from last season.

That belief would only have swelled when Villa saw the City XI. A team that looked unable to pry open Manchester United last weekend had dropped Kevin De Bruyne. Matched up with an opponent that loves nothing more than to force direct transition movements against opposition high lines, City had robbed themselves of the recovery pace of Kyle Walker. No Ruben Dias either, a muscle injury to sideline him for the festive period, nor Ederson.

So, Guardiola’s hands were somewhat tied, albeit to an extent that most managers would expect at this stage of the season. Yet, it is fair to say, that he exacerbated the situation. In leaving both Savinho and Jeremy Doku on the bench, Guardiola gave himself a frontline whose first inclination was to move infield, headfirst into the much bigger, stronger and more mobile claret and blue shirts that were packing the heart of the pitch. Savinho’s introduction before the close certainly gave City something different, direct running out wide that forced space, enough for Phil Foden to scramble through for his first Premier League goal of the season, too late to offer all but a fool’s hope in a 2-1 defeat that could have been much worse.

In the heart of the scrum, Ilkay Gundogan and Mateo Kovacic had nothing to evade the attentions of Youri Tielemans, let alone Amadaou Onana and Boubacar Kamara. They couldn’t even patrol the spaces in front of the back line. John Stones feeling he had no option but to fly into the midfield when a simple pass from Emiliano Martinez found Tielemans with space to advance into. One more through ball and what was left of the City line was out of the game, Morgan Rogers sliding the ball across Stefan Ortega for Jhon Duran to open the scoring.

Guardiola would tell you this comes less through what City got wrong than what Villa got right, acknowledging that Stones had been late to get to Tielemans but praising the precision with which they cut through the City line from there on out. 

“In the mid-block they are so strong,” Guardiola added. “We have good moments, we had chances, more chances than in the [Manchester] United game, but in the second half we dropped and our pressing was not good enough. 

“We struggled a little bit and we could not drop them well. We found a goal in the end, but too late. We struggle to score and we concede goals.”

A lot of teams seem to be getting a lot right against City at the moment. When one issue in your side keeps getting picked at, the coach needs to make adjustments. That opener was maybe only the third or fourth of the dozen plus moments, starting in the 16th second, when City’s high line had been demolished by Villa. Of course it is easier said than done to adapt to life without Rodri, whose Ballon d’Or in absentia case is already growing more compelling. 

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A Mateo Kovacic evidently some way short of full fitness isn’t going to be much of a replacement, nor whatever Ilkay Gundogan has left in the tank. Romeo Lavia might have been, but the best of City’s very impressive academy are now pulling up trees elsewhere, none more so than Rogers, whose dynamism and composure in the final third would go a long way in this team. It would be one thing if the fruits of academy sales were going into deepening a squad that has been cleaved to the bone because that’s the way Guardiola has liked it, at least until this week when he admitted perhaps he needs 25 players to manage across multiple competitions. It might have been helpful if anyone at City had reached that conclusion in the summer of 2023.

Anyway, there are ways to aid your high line other than having Rodri or signing a replacement more immediately. Kyle Walker might have been struggling but he is supposed to be City’s last line, the one whose burst is supposed to get his teammates out of trouble when their press is broken. He didn’t offer much in the second half, replacing John Stones after his foot problem flared up again, to suggest that this game might have been any different if he had started. But still, a defender with real recovery pace was another thing Guardiola opted to rob himself of in a game where his backline would evidently need it.

Guardiola himself was unimpressed by the second half, making vague allusions to the changes made to accommodate “our captain” Walker. Again, however, you can ask questions of the manager. John McGinn had relished 45 minutes of bully ball against Josko Gvardiol. He seemed to get even more joy against the inverting Rico Lewis. Could Walker not have gone at center back, where he has played rather frequently of late, to avoid exacerbating a problem that was already apparent?

Even at the peak of his powers Guardiola has never been above making adjustments that hinder his side. What was he trying today? The logical answer would be that you introduce Lewis and Jack Grealish for Walker and Doku because you want control. City certainly had plenty of the ball in the first half but no one would mistake it for dominance. Within 20 minutes their attacking plans had devolved to long balls out wide to Grealish in the hope that he would recapture some of that old Villa Park magic, beat three guys and strike a wonder goal.

Guardiola’s City have had many looks: the team of flying wingers and cutbacks, steady possession that forced mistakes, now a side that had all sorts of avenues to funnel the ball to the pure scoring greatness of Erling Haaland. Rarely have they allowed themselves to be so reliant on the fortunes of one winger, no matter how much his manager pronounced himself impressed with Grealish and the wider first-half performance.

As for Haaland, he was not at all enamored with his own display. “I haven’t been doing things good enough,” City’s No.9 said after another game where his shot output was blink and you’ll miss it. “I haven’t been scoring my chances. I have to do better, I haven’t been good enough.”

Haaland is wrong, as Guardiola himself noted. He has not been scoring his chances because he has not been getting them. One header in the 90th minute, that was all that came his way. For all the issues that come from not having Rodri, from the fading of Kevin De Bruyne, City still have the best pure striker in the game. The ball is not coming to him. A player who routinely averages four plus shots per 90 minutes has not even hit half that this month.

When asked why Stones had come off at half time — a recurrence of the foot injury he has carried of late — Guardiola was at pains to say that he is trying to simplify. “I would say I’m not in the right moment to make tactical and creative changes.” Take him at his word but the solutions he deployed at Villa Park made things easier for Villa, not City. 

Things will probably come good for Guardiola, not least because for all the glee in those chants of “you’re getting sacked in the morning,” he will be afforded the time that few, if any, managers are to recover numbers and figure out new options. Make no mistake, however, if a manager without such a garlanded history were in Guardiola’s position they would know they cannot get away with many more messes like that City made this afternoon.