Pac-12 basketball tiers, post-realignment: San Diego State will be the new king of the conference

Dread it, run from it, conference alignment arrives all the same. The Pac-12 is back. It officially pilfered the Mountain West’s quartet of Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State and Fresno State to form a new and improved, Pac-12 Six. The move-in date is set for 2026.

More is on the way. Rice, UTSA, Memphis and North Texas could be in the sights of Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould, sources indicated to CBS Sports’ John Talty and Dennis Dodd.

So, what does it mean for hoops? The gap between Pac-12 and Mountain West hoops had not-so-quietly been getting slimmer and slimmer. The Pac-12 still finished slightly ahead of the Mountain West in Ken Pomeroy’s conference power ratings, but it wasn’t showing up in NCAA Tournament appearances. It boiled over last year when five Mountain West teams earned at-large berths to the Big Dance, two more than the Conference of Champions, much to the late, great Bill Walton’s chagrin. It was the second time in three years that the Mountain West had more representation in the Big Dance than the Pac-12.

Arizona is off to the Big 12 (not super weird) and Oregon and UCLA are in the Big Ten (yeah, that’s weird), so the new-look Pac-12 has some vacancies for hoops royalty. 

Let’s divide the Pac-12 Six and the four potential American Athletic Conference (AAC) additions into three separate tiers.

• Tier I: True conference title contender
• Tier II: Fringe NCAA Tournament program
• Tier III: Work to do

The focus, of course, is more on the state of the program, not the outlook for 2024-25. Benchmarks like resources (a fancy, cleaner word for money), coaching, roster-construction tendencies and basketball history were all considered.

Let’s dive in:

Pac-12’s current six schools

San Diego State

Tier I: True conference title contender

The skinny: The road through the new-look Pac-12 will go through San Diego State. The Aztecs are a high-major hoops program and have been for a minute. San Diego State advanced all the way to the National Championship game in 2023 before falling to UConn (big deal, who didn’t), and Brian Dutcher has built five straight, top-30 teams on KenPom. Dutcher is regarded as one of the elite defensive coaches in the sport, providing San Diego State a ridiculously high floor with the opportunity for spike seasons when an All-American like Jaedon LeDee or Malachi Flynn emerges.

Roster-construction outlook: San Diego State won’t win a recruiting rankings title, but Dutcher is constantly stacking top-100 talent while showing a real knack for finding pieces that fit, via the portal. Five of San Diego State’s top-seven players last season were transfers. Reese Waters, a former USC product, is expected to step into the alpha-dawg role for the Aztecs in 2024-25, and San Diego State can sell the success of LeDee and Matt Bradley in the portal, too. 

Boise State

Tier I: True conference title contender

The skinny: Boise State has won 20-plus games in 10 of the past 12 seasons under Leon Rice, and it would’ve been 11 if not for the pandemic-shortened, 2020-21 season. It’s been ridiculously consistent for a decade, but Boise State has leveled up recently. The Broncos have notched three straight, NCAA Tournament appearances, including back-to-back, at-large bids. At this rate, Boise State is more than capable of regularly chasing the Pac-12 crown.

Roster-construction outlook: Boise State has long been a landing spot for high-major transfers, and that won’t change anytime soon. Boise State has also mixed that with the ability to retain some of its best talent. Tyson Degenhart is shaping up to be a four-year starter and should break Boise State’s all-time scoring record. Rice, smartly, doesn’t rely on just one way to build his rosters. Boise State routinely lands some of the top talent out West while scouring the portal for difference-makers and even dipping into the NAIA waters, if needed. Rice has so many avenues to build a contender.

Colorado State

Tier II: Fringe NCAA Tournament program

The skinny: An underrated angle of Colorado State’s move to the Pac-12 could mean its pitch to keep coach Niko Medved may have just gotten better. Medved has led Colorado State to the NCAA Tournament in two of the past three seasons with one of the most creative offenses in the country. It helps to have an all-time stud like Isaiah Stevens, but Medved’s Princeton-style offense is a delight to watch and a headache for opposing defensive coordinators.

Roster–construction outlook: Stevens becoming an All-American in Fort Collins should give Colorado State a strong pitch in the portal both now and moving forward. Coveted Northern Iowa transfer Bowen Born should get the first crack at following Stevens’ footsteps, but Colorado State has other big hits in the portal, like Colorado transfer Nique Clifford who is firmly on NBA radars and is one of the top 3-and-D wings in the country. Medved has used his strong ties to talent-laden Minnesota to become a staple for some of the top hoopers in that state, and Colorado State also showed its knack for going outside of Division I to find talent. Three key rotation pieces of last year’s NCAA Tournament team (Joel Scott, Patrick Cartier and Joe Palmer) all transferred in from the Division II or Division III ranks. 

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Washington State

Tier II: Fringe NCAA Tournament program

The skinny: Washington State hadn’t been back to the NCAA Tournament since 2008, but Kyle Smith snapped that streak last season with an incredible 25-win team that culminated in a dramatic, come-from-behind, Round of 64 win over Drake. But Smith left for Stanford and the roster completely evaporated, so Washington State’s brass tabbed Eastern Washington’s David Riley to take over. Riley, 36, is one of the youngest coaches in the country, but his offenses are legit. Riley smartly was able to bring five of Eastern Washington’s best players (Cedric Coward, LeJuan Watts, Ethan Price, Casey Jones and Dane Erikstrup) to Washington State to ease some of the Year 1 growing pains.

Roster-construction outlook: This is still a rather large unknown. Riley’s recruiting was really good at Eastern Washington. Can it level up with more resources at Washington State? Early signs are promising. Washington State is expected to be active in the international waters, and Riley landed high-major transfers like Nate Calmese and ND Okafor from Washington and Oregon, respectively. Plus, if Coward has the season some NBA Draft sickos expect, Washington State’s pitch should be even more attractive.

Fresno State

Tier III: Work to do

The skinny: Fresno State is in a bit of a transition period both on and off the court. The Bulldogs own just one Big Dance appearance since 2002, and the Fresno State brass just tabbed 68-year-old Vance Walberg to replace Justin Hutson, who went just 10-26 in Mountain West play in his final two seasons. It’s a bit of an interesting hire. Walberg, dubbed the father of the dribble drive offense, has not coached college basketball since 2008 at Pepperdine. Lots has changed in the sport since then, but Walberg’s coaching chops are obvious, and hiring former Kentucky assistant John Welch (who modernized John Calipari’s offense last year) seems like a wise move.

Roster-construction outlook: It’s a massive unknown, which is why Fresno State is in Tier III. Will a coaching change lead to a financial boon, like we’ve seen at Arkansas or BYU for reference? Early returns aren’t super promising. Fresno State is shaping up to have the youngest roster in the Mountain West and one of the least-experienced teams in the country. Fresno State has just one senior in its projected rotation (Jalen Weaver), and it dove into the junior college ranks to fill out this roster. Walberg may have to do more with less until the windfall comes in. 

Oregon State

Tier III: Work to do

The skinny: Oregon State’s miracle Elite Eight run in 2021 feels like a lifetime ago — (doesn’t everything from 2021? Coach Wayne Tinkle is still here, but the Beavers have been ravaged. A three-win, 2021-22 season forced Tinkle to basically start from scratch and go super young. He gave freshmen like Jordan Pope and Tyler Bilodeau early starting roles in 2022-23. They took their lumps as freshmen, started to show real signs of promise as sophomores and hit the portal for starting gigs at Texas and UCLA, respectively, before they could be All-League juniors. Such is life for a program that does not have the resources of its high-major brethren. 

Roster-construction outlook: Tinkle certainly has a knack for finding and developing some gems. Both Pope and Bilodeau were ranked outside the top-150 as recruits and turned into coveted transfer targets after a few years of development at Oregon State. Tinkle has to keep acing that Moneyball-like approach because Oregon State has not been able to compete financially with the big dawgs in the portal. 

Potential additions

Memphis

Tier I: True conference title contender

The skinny: Drama is swirling around Penny Hardaway after repeated coaching staff overhauls, but Memphis’ resources would make it an easy Tier I squad in the Pac-12. Year after year, Hardaway has reeled in some of the best players in the country. Hardaway can land the top-rated players from both the prep ranks (see: Jalen Duren and Emoni Bates) or the portal (see: David Jones, Jahvon Quinerly, Tyrese Hunter or PJ Haggerty). If the Tigers make it to the Pac-12, it’s an instant true contender, regardless of who is stalking the sideline. 

North Texas

Tier II: Fringe NCAA Tournament program

The skinny: Grant McCasland turned North Texas into a consistent, Conference USA powerhouse before taking the Texas Tech job in last year’s coaching cycle. North Texas tabbed McCasland’s long-time assistant, Ross Hodge, to take over ahead of the move to the AAC. North Texas finished 19-15 but 12 of the losses were by two possessions or less in the ultra-competitive American Athletic Conference (AAC). Unfortunately, a talented roster did not stick together. St. John’s swooped in for Aaron Scott. Jason Edwards zoomed to Vanderbilt. Rubin Jones landed at Michigan. New Mexico scooped up CJ Noland, and John Buggs transferred to East Tennessee State where he’s primed to erupt. But Hodge has reloaded in the portal and North Texas is a proud program, built on defense, that expects to compete for postseason berths every single season, regardless of conference affiliation.

Rice 

Tier III: Work to do

The skinny: Rice has not finished in the top-100 on KenPom since 2004, but it hired a program-builder in Rob Lanier who raised the bar at Georgia State and had SMU looking much-improved in Year 2. Rice is quietly one of the older teams in the country, but everyone is experienced in the AAC, so it might not matter. Short-term, Rice has an uphill battle to compete. Long-term, Rice’s arrow is pointing up under Lanier who could be cooking with gas if an eventual Pac-12 move comes in 2026-27. But the ceiling here remains much lower.

UTSA

Tier III: Work to do

The skinny: UTSA is another program who needed a change and landed a promising young coach in the wacky carousel. Former Nicholls State head coach Austin Claunch spent a year as an assistant under Alabama’s Nate Oats and quickly parlayed it into another head coaching opportunity at UTSA. Claunch is respected as an outstanding recruiter, and his first-year roster at UTSA features numerous high-major transfer-down hoopers, headlined by Primo Spears, Jaquan Scott, Paul Lewis and Damari Monsanto. This roster doesn’t look like some of the ones in the school’s past. Could this be the beginning of something?