NFL Week 3 picks, best bets: 49ers set to smash, Titans a live dog, Falcons a threat to Lions

Apparently I need to swim in the Taylor Swift waters more often. After a disastrous Week 1 for my best bets, we bounced back in a big way in Week 2 with an extremely high number of Swiftie references driving a group of picks that, quite frankly, should have ended in a sweep if the Patriots took care of business. 

In lieu of additional Swift references, maybe we’ll go something else? I could go ocean references instead (Miami is Dolphinally going to win, etc) but that feels more forced than ordering anything with cod in/on/around it. 

But let’s be clear: I was at the forefront of the T-Swift references. I started slinging them on Wednesday afternoon and let it carry over into a Thursday hit on HQ Spotlight (watch it on CBS Sports Network) to the point I was being “Hassel’d” by our host about jamming the references into “my” show.  

The venerable Rich Eisen of NFL Network dropped a slew of them on Sunday and my wildly underrated colleague Ian Eagle had a perfectly timed “Blank Space” call when Travis Kelce (rumored to be dating Taylor) scored a touchdown for the Chiefs on Sunday. 

Did making a bunch of T-Swift references cause me to get hot on my bets last week? Probably not! I think it was not moving off my priors, ignoring Week 1, not being concerned about the spread movement and backing the teams I believed were in better shape. Also, like most strong NFL weeks, I got lucky. 

We can get lucky again and when I run hot I usually stay hot so jump on board — all my picks are up at SportsLine (first month for $1 by using promo code PICK). You can also see my full Week 3 picks here and check out our Pick Six Podcast Week 3 NFL picks podcast live at 2 p.m. ET on our YouTube page, or listen anytime wherever you get your podcasts. 

There’s a ton of big spreads this week and underdogs are hot right now … anyway to the best bets! 

49ers (-10) at Giants

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Stream: Amazon Prime Video)

It’s too early in the season to be backing this big a line … except the 49ers aren’t being given enough credit here. There are multiple teams with bigger point spreads this week (Dallas and Kansas City). Neither is on a short week and only one is at home. The 49ers might be the best team in football, the Giants are exhaling on a short week when they didn’t get to go home after surviving a miracle comeback against the Cardinals and their run defense is a problem. Christian McCaffrey is going to go off Thursday. I’d lean under as well because I think Kyle Shanahan wants to minimize this game and prevent a ton of second-half plays. 

Falcons (+3.5) at Lions

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)

I legit can’t believe I faded the Falcons in Week 1. Thankfully I’m getting points with Atlanta for the second straight week and I’m happy to take those points for the second straight week especially when it’s against a team that, just like the Falcons, should be playing plenty of one-score games. Atlanta showed they could come from behind in Week 2 and Desmond Ridder’s playing the exact role I hoped he would, a younger, poor man’s (maybe?) Ryan Tannehill. Bijan Robinson is second in the NFL in rushing yards and should eat here. The Falcons defense probably won’t shut down the Lions but they’ll create a turnover or two, the offense will slow things down for Detroit and this game will end up being within a field goal. 

Seahawks (-5.5) vs. Panthers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Seattle is the “worst” defense Carolina’s seen so far this year, but it might not matter. The Panthers offense looks sluggish, didn’t do anything until garbage time at home on MNF and now they’re traveling across the country on a short week to go against a Seattle team feeling it can really get in the NFC West race with a win here. Defensively, the Panthers are very good — that was my biggest concern, but Shaq Thompson is done for the year, Jaycee Horn is on IR and Brian Burns was banged up on Monday. The Seahawks should be much healthier a week later, especially on the offensive line. This is a tough spot for Bryce Young. My second-biggest concern is me finally fading Carolina and getting bit in the butt for it, but the circumstances just aren’t great for this young team. 

Titans (+3.5) at Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Short version: Mike Vrabel as an underdog is a really good bet over the last several years and he’s already 2-0 ATS as a dog this year and 1-1 (nearly 2-0) straight up in the same spot. Cleveland’s defense is good, but the Steelers had some explosive plays against them. The Titans won’t risk it quite as much and will likely feed Derrick Henry more. He’ll be better than Najee Harris. There’s also the shock factor of Nick Chubb here — the Steelers didn’t run a single offensive play in the red zone on Monday night and won the game. That’s pretty rare! Deshaun Watson does not look like someone who was worthy of multiple first-round picks and a record-setting contract (say nothing about the off-field issues that resulted in him being suspended for a lengthy period of time) at this point in time. Vrabel believes he can make the playoffs and this is a prime spot to steal a win.

Rams (+2.5) at Bengals

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, fubo)

This is an easy fade of a possible Joe Burrow absence for me. To be clear: I believe the Rams can win the game outright anyway. Matthew Stafford’s looked mostly outstanding two games into the season, the Rams are doing a pretty good job pass protecting for him, the run game has been a surprise and is only exceeded by the receiving surprises that have been Puka Nacua and TuTu Atwell. Obviously we’d prefer to get the Rams at more than a field goal but even if we get a gimpy Burrow playing I don’t know how high the number will end up getting at this point with the concerns over the Bengals quarterback’s calf. I’d ~guess~ it ends up maxing out at Bengals +4, assuming we don’t get anything substantially confident about Burrow leading up to the game. It’s Monday so anything big would likely come on Sunday morning depending on the final injury report Saturday. If Burrow’s ruled out, the Rams will be favored, and I lean towards that happening at the moment, so I’m going to try and get on the right side of this line as early as I can.