76ers’ best-case and worst-case scenario: With Paul George and Joel Embiid, can this roster get over the hump?

It’s a lot easier to preview the 2024-25 Philadelphia 76ers than it was to preview the previous iteration. This time last year, the Sixers had changed coaches and added some players on minimum contracts, but they entered training camp in limbo, with a star player’s trade request hanging over the team for the second time in three seasons. Philadelphia general manager Daryl Morey has long said that rosters shouldn’t be judged in July as if they’re finished products; as a result of James Harden’s opt-in-and-ask-out maneuver, it was impossible to assess that particular roster until the last day of October.

The Harden trade didn’t return another star, but it set the stage for the Sixers to make the biggest splash of the summer. When the Los Angeles Clippers got stingy with unrestricted free agent Paul George, Philadelphia swooped in with a maximum contract offer and brought Dr. J to his doorstep. Tyrese Maxey, who made his first All-Star appearance and earned the Most Improved Player award in 2023-24, agreed to max contract on the first day of free agency, too, and Morey’s front office spent the rest of the offseason filling gaps: Kelly Oubre Jr. returned on the room midlevel and Kyle Lowry returned for the minimum. Andre Drummond took a chunk of what remained of Philly’s cap space, and, miraculously, Caleb Martin took the rest. Eric Gordon and Reggie Jackson joined on minimums, too, as did ebullient French forward Guerschon Yabusele, after dunking on LeBron James in the gold medal game at the Paris Olympics.

The Sixers would surely love to have another French forward, Nicolas Batum, but the 35-year-old left for the Clippers, who offered him the bi-annual exception. Overall, though, after creating the flexibility to do something that almost never happens these days — land a legitimate star in free agency — Philadelphia appears to have checked just about every box, including one that will give Morey an avenue to check off an additional box down the road: K.J. Martin re-signed on a two-year, $16 million deal that is non-guaranteed in Year 2, which makes him simultaneously a potential rotation player for the Sixers and effectively a trade exception. When franchise player Joel Embiid signed a contract extension last Friday, it felt like something of a formality. Yes, the team is coming off a first-round exit, but Embiid has two stars at his side, complementary role players with experience and a championship-winning coach (Nick Nurse) who has already helped expand his game. Why wouldn’t he want to stay?

The state of play

Last year: The Sixers were done with the Harden distraction by Halloween, and Embiid took to Nurse’s new offense from the start, outperforming his MVP season until a meniscus injury derailed everything. Despite ending the regular season on an eight-game winning streak, they finished 47-35 (No. 15 on offense, No. 11 on defense) and had to win a play-in game, which earned them a first-round matchup with the Knicks, a slugfest that featured a 50-point Game 3 from Embiid, a 46-point Game 5 from Maxey and a heartbreaking, season-ending loss in Game 6 on their home court.

The offseason: Oubre and Martin aren’t lights-out shooters, but they’re home run signings and likely starters. Philly knows exactly what to expect of Drummond and Lowry, and it seems like an ideal destination for Gordon and Yabusele. All of these smaller moves deserve praise, but they were only possible because of the massive one — when you put a Big 3 together, players want to join the party. (And the massive one was only possible because the Sixers were willing to let a bunch of guys walk. On that note, goodbye to Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, Buddy Hield, Paul Reed, Cameron Payne and Mo Bamba. Robert Covington remains unsigned.) The Sixers’ pair of draftees — No. 16 pick Jared McCain and No. 41 pick Adem Bona — seem like an extremely fun hang. 

Best-case scenario for 2024-25: Philly sends three players to the All-Star Game and finishes the regular season with a top-five offense, a top-five defense and the best record in the Eastern Conference, but everybody picks the Celtics to repeat anyway, which makes it a thousand times sweeter for the Sixers when Embiid bullies Boston in the conference finals en route to their first championship in 42 years, which the man who nicknamed himself The Process punctuates by demanding Sam Hinkie’s presence at the parade upon accepting his Finals MVP award.

Worst-case scenario for 2024-25: Philly doesn’t flame out, exactly, but the vets all decline and, thanks to a series of injuries — and a strange, only vaguely explained absence due to “illness” — the Sixers’ full starting five doesn’t play more than three consecutive games together until April, a situation that allows their fan base to reasonably see championship upside in a team that finishes the regular season fifth in the East, only for their dreams to be dashed when, despite Embiid finally being healthy at the right time, they lose another coin-flip series in the first round.

The conversation

Sixers believer: I can’t believe they actually pulled it off! After the Harden trade, I figured the Sixers needed to make their next big move before last year’s deadline, since free agency basically doesn’t exist anymore (for stars, anyway). I was wrong, obviously, but I’m still not sure my thinking was off. I mean, yes, PAUL GEORGE is way better than anyone they were going to get in exchange for Tobias Harris’ expiring contract and picks, but what were the odds that they were actually going to get PAUL GEORGE? I simultaneously want to give Daryl Morey all the credit in the world for constructing the best team of the Embiid era and scream that the entire thing happened because of dumb luck. Why in the world did the Clippers basically hand PG over?

Sixers skeptic: I thought you were supposed to be pro-Sixers. You’re roasting Morey?

Sixers believer: No! I’m in awe of Morey. He knew the risk here. There was this one amazing outcome, and then there were a bunch of way more likely outcomes, none of which were even close to amazing. I am not sure I could have gone through with it, but I have no choice but to salute everyone involved in PG coming to Philadelphia. Shoutout to Dr. J!

Sixers skeptic: I’m sure it was Dr. J who sealed the deal, not the four years of max money. Wait, no, maybe it was Lil Dicky. Anyway, now that we’ve established you’re a Morey stan, I must ask: Are you sure that signing George was even a good move? I understand that it was an impressive move, but is this the front-office equivalent of making a contested fadeaway jumper? In the era of the second apron, I’m not convinced that it makes sense to go after a third star at all, let alone this particular one, who will turn 38 during the 2028 playoffs and make $56.6 million that season. I actually applaud the Clippers for drawing a line in the sand, and I think the Sixers would have been better off using their cap space to surround Embiid and Maxey with a superior supporting cast. That kind of offseason wouldn’t have been as flashy, but, as Morey knows, an open corner 3 is preferable to a contested fadeaway.

Sixers believer: Congratulations, you’ve galaxy-brained yourself into an analogy so nonsensical that I am loath to even respond to it. But I have to, so here goes: The star player is the open corner 3! That’s how the NBA works! If given the chance to sign a couple of my favorite role players or sign a genuine star, I’m taking the star every time. Depth is important, for sure — and Philly did an awesome job adding depth after the George signing — but the most efficient way for any team to spend its money is on stars. This will be the case as long as you can only put five players on the court, and, as far as I know, that didn’t change in the new CBA.

Sixers skeptic: Hmm, how far did the Phoenix Suns and their Big 3 get last season? I seem to remember experts praising them for their “smart” minimum signings, so I’d like to wait and see before declaring that the Sixers did an “awesome” job with theirs. Eric Gordon was one of Phoenix’s supposedly great signings, by the way, and the Yuta Watanabe signing got internet dorks about as excited as the Yabu signing did this summer. There is truth to what you’re saying about stars and role players — you’d rather have a dollar than four quarters, generally — but the math changes when A) you already have two stars and B) the third one destroys your flexibility. What are Philadelphia’s outs if George falls off dramatically in the next couple of seasons? Replace him with a minimum guy?

Sixers believer: Philadelphia is not Phoenix, and this Big 3 is not that Big 3. George is the exact type of player the Sixers have needed for years, and it’s weird to keep harping on the idea that he might not be quite as good at the end of this contract. Embiid is an MVP-caliber player right now, and no one knows how long his prime will last. If the Sixers weren’t willing to offer George four years, they weren’t getting him, so they offered him four years. This is what you do when you’re trying to win a championship. Also, we really don’t need to talk about depth and flexibility as if they’re these abstract things that Philadelphia might have sacrificed. Look at the actual roster and the actual cap sheet! The Sixers have depth, they have the K.J. Martin contract and they have future picks to trade, which means they do indeed have flexibility.

Sixers skeptic: I’m looking at the roster now. It’s … pretty good! On paper, it’s definitely one of the top five or six rosters in the league, assuming everybody is healthy. I don’t think the Celtics are particularly worried about this Big 3, though, and I wouldn’t pick Philly in a seven-game series against the Knicks or Bucks. If I were a Sixers fan, I’d be worrying about teams daring Kelly Oubre Jr. and Caleb Martin to shoot and I’d be worried about the collective age of the second unit. I’d also find it difficult to watch Embiid and George play in the regular season without being terrified that one of them would get hurt. You don’t have any of these concerns?

Sixers believer: Those are fair concerns, I guess, but I could pick similar nits about all the teams you mentioned, even the mighty Celtics. (Unlike Philly, they have an injured center to worry about, rather than the concept of an injured center.) And if you’re so scared that a star will get hurt, isn’t it great that the Sixers now have three of them? Beyond that, I figured they’d probably lose Oubre to a team that could pay him more money, but instead they kept him and somehow stole Martin from Miami. I loved what Lowry brought to the team last year, I love Gordon’s deep 3-pointers and I love that Philly will get some extra possessions when Drummond is on the floor. Maybe you’re right that the defending champs aren’t focused on what the Sixers did in the summer, but I bet Morey and Nick Nurse are thinking about the Celtics constantly. Embiid, George and Maxey should be, too. Philly is coming for them.

Sixers skeptic: Eh, I liked the team with Butler in his prime better, but whatever. I’ll let you get back to celebrating Embiid’s new contract extension. I’m sure that, in your view, there’s zero risk whatsoever in betting that his body will hold up in his mid-30s.