2024 exit polls: Fears for American democracy, economic discontent drive voters

(NEW YORK) — Americans are going to the polls Tuesday to cast their ballots in the historic election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Surveys ahead of Election Day found the two candidates in a virtual dead heat nationally and in several key swing states.

Broad economic discontent, sharp divisions about the nation’s future and polarized views of the major-party candidates mark voter attitudes nationally in ABC News’ preliminary exit poll results.

The state of democracy prevailed narrowly as the most important issue to voters out of five tested in the exit poll.

The country and democracy

Voters broadly express more negative than positive views about the country’s direction: Just 26% are enthusiastic or satisfied with the way things are going, versus 72% dissatisfied or angry.

More voters see American democracy as threatened than say it’s secure, 73% to 25%. Still, about six in 10 in these preliminary exit poll results say the country’s best days are ahead of it, versus about a third who say the country’s best days are in the past.

Extremism and candidate favorability

Fifty-five percent call Trump’s views “too extreme,” and he’s underwater in personal favorability, 44%-55%. Fewer call Harris’ views too extreme (46%), though she’s also underwater in personal favorability, albeit slightly, 48%-50%.

Favorability isn’t determinative: Just 40% saw Trump favorably in 2016, when he won the Electoral College (albeit not the popular vote). One reason is that almost as few, 43%, had a favorable view of his opponent that year, Hillary Clinton. (In 2020, Trump’s favorability rating was 46%; Joe Biden’s was 52%.)

Underscoring the emotion associated with the contest, preliminarily 36% of voters say they’d be “scared” if Trump were elected, while 29% would be scared by a Harris win.

The economy and Biden

The economy remains a key irritant. Voters say it’s in bad shape by 67%-32%. And 45% say their own financial situation is worse now than four years ago, versus 30% the same, with just 24% doing better. The “worse off” number exceeds its 2008 level, then 42%, and far outpaces its shares in 2020 (20%) and 2016 (28%).

Biden takes the heat, with just a 41% job approval rating (58% disapprove). It’s been a challenge for Harris to persuade voters she’s taking a new direction from Biden’s. (Biden’s approval rating is the lowest for an incumbent president in exit polls since George W. Bush’s 27% as he left office in 2008. Trump managed 50% job approval in 2020, yet Biden beat him anyway).

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