2022 U.S. Open odds: Surprising PGA picks, weekend predictions from golf model that’s nailed eight majors

The first two rounds of the 2022 U.S. Open are officially in the books. It’s an extremely crowded leaderboard as the third round is set to get underway from The Country Club in Brookline, Mass., on Saturday morning. Collin Morikawa and Joel Dahmen currently sit atop the 2022 U.S. Open leaderboard at 5-under par, while Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and three others are just one shot off the lead. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler enters the weekend two shots behind the leaders. 

Meanwhile, major champions like Brooks Koepka (E), Hideki Matsuyama (E) and Justin Thomas (+1) are still within striking distance. Caesars Sportsbook lists McIlroy and Morikawa as the 4-1 favorites in the latest 2022 U.S. Open odds, with Rahm (9-2), Scheffler (7-1), Aaron Wise (16-1) and Sam Burns (16-1) next in line. With so many experienced players atop the U.S. Open 2022 leaderboard, you’ll want to check out the PGA Tour predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model before locking in your 2022 U.S. Open picks.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, it’s up over $9,500 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model included Justin Thomas in its best bets to win the 2022 PGA Championship. That bet hit at +1600, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $800. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. 

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the cut has been made at the 2022 U.S. Open, SportsLine simulated the final two rounds 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2022 U.S. Open predictions 

One huge shocker the model is calling for at the U.S. Open 2022: Morikawa, a two-time major champion and the co-leader, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. The 25-year-old fired a 66 on Friday, the best round of the day.

However, Morikawa has consistently struggled on the green this season, which the model has taken into consideration. In fact, Morikawa is ranked 127th in strokes gained: putting (-0.60), 163rd in total putting (282.7), and 107th in one-putt percentage (40.14%). He’s also averaging 27.89 putts in the third round of tournaments this season, which ranks 40th on tour. McClure’s model has identified several other golfers with better value in the U.S. Open weekend odds.

Another surprise: Matthew Fitzpatrick, a 20-1 long shot, makes a surprising run into contention. He has a better chance to win than his odds imply, making him a great U.S. Open weekend sleeper pick. The 27-year old enters the third round three strokes off the lead after shooting a 70 in the second round. 

Fitzpatrick has been playing spectacular golf in recent weeks, finishing inside the top-10 in three of his last four starts, which includes a top-five showing at the PGA Championship. He’s been one of the PGA Tour’s most consistent players this season, ranking inside the top-10 in scoring average (69.331), strokes gained: tee-to-green (1.569) and scrambling (69.26%). That can help him pick up strokes quickly, so confidently back him in your 2022 U.S. Open weekend bets.

How to make 2022 U.S. Open picks

The model is also targeting two golfers with odds of 35-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s U.S. Open picks here.

So who will win the U.S. Open 2022? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2022 U.S. Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2022 U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed eight golf majors, including this year’s Masters.

2022 U.S. Open weekend odds, field

Rory McIlroy +400
Collin Morikawa +400
Jon Rahm +450
Scottie Scheffler +700
Aaron Wise +1600
Sam Burns +1600
Joel Dahmen +2000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2000
Xander Schauffele +2500
Brian Harman +3000
Beau Hossler +3500
Will Zalatoris +4000
Justin Thomas +4000
Hayden Buckley +4000
Brooks Koepka +4000
Matthew Nesmith +5000
Davis Riley +5000
Patrick Rodgers +5000
Keegan Bradley +6500
Nick Hardy +6500
Adam Hadwin +6500
Dustin Johnson +6500
Hideki Matsuyama +6500
Joaquin Niemann +10000
Justin Rose +10000
Jordan Spieth +12500
M.J. Daffue +20000
Marc Leishman +20000
Thomas Pieters +20000
Max Homa +20000
Patrick Reed +20000
Seamus Power +20000
Callum Tarren +20000
Adam Schenk +25000
David Lingmerth +25000
Patrick Cantlay +25000
Bryson DeChambeau +25000
Wyndham Clark +30000
Andrew Putnam +30000
Adam Scott +30000
Mackenzie Hughes +30000
Gary Woodland +40000
Tyrrell Hatton +40000
Harris English +40000
Joohyung Kim +40000
Travis Vick +40000
Sam Stevens +50000
Cameron Tringale +50000
Grayson Murray +50000
Richard Bland +50000
Sebastian Soderberg +50000
Corey Conners +50000
Shane Lowry +50000
Wil Besseling +50000
Sebastian Munoz +50000
Sungjae Im +50000
Guido Migliozzi +75000
Cameron Young +75000
Joseph Bramlett +75000
Sergio Garcia +75000
Brandon Matthews +75000
Stewart Cink +100000
Todd Sinnott +100000
Min Woo Lee +100000
Billy Horschel +100000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +100000
Sam Bennett +100000
Kevin Kisner +100000
Austin Greaser +100000
Jason Kokrak +100000
Denny McCarthy +100000
Webb Simpson +100000
Erik Barnes +100000
Mito Pereira +100000
Stewart Hagestad +150000
Jim Furyk +150000